Russian nuclear escalation remains low, even after the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American weapons deeper into Russian territory, Reuters reported, citing the US intelligence assessments.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric, intelligence officials have concluded that the use of American missiles like ATACMs would not dramatically alter Russia’s nuclear calculus.
On 19 November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. This change was made in response to the recent decision by US President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets within Russian territory.
Under the new doctrine, any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack, potentially justifying a nuclear response from Moscow.
“The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence said.
While nuclear escalation is considered unlikely, there are significant concerns about alternative forms of Russian retaliation.
Angela Stent, director of Eurasian studies at Georgetown University, said, “Russia’s hybrid response is a concern. The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater.”
A key turning point in the decision-making process was North Korea’s involvement in the war. According to a senior US official, the introduction of between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean soldiers convinced the administration to allow long-range strikes. Russia’s battlefield gains and the perceived escalation by Moscow prompted this response.
The intelligence assessments have highlighted that while Putin frequently threatens nuclear action, Moscow is unlikely to take such a step.
Intelligence officials view nuclear weapons as a last resort, believing Russia would first employ other means of reprisal, such as sabotage and cyberattacks.
One US official explained that while Washington does not expect nuclear escalation, Russia will likely attempt to match what it perceives as US escalation – evidenced by its recent launch of a new ballistic missile.
On 21 November 2024, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, marking the first known use of such a missile in combat against Ukraine. The missile was reportedly fired from the Astrakhan region in Russia, covering approximately 600 miles in less than five minutes.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the use of the intercontinental ballistic missile, likely the RS-26 Rubezh, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads
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