Georgia faces a pivotal parliamentary election on 26 October that could determine the country’s geopolitical orientation between Europe and Russia. According to RBC-Ukraine, the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, aims to secure a constitutional majority that would allow them to outlaw opposition parties.
British company SAVANTA’s polling shows Georgian Dream has 35% support, while four pro-European opposition blocs collectively command 52%. The opposition breakdown shows Coalition for Change at 19%, Unity at 16%, Strong Georgia at 9%, and Gakharia For Georgia at 8%. However, per RBC-Ukraine, a GORBI poll commissioned by pro-government TV company Imedi gives Georgian Dream 60.2%, enough for a constitutional majority.
Foreign Policy Research Center expert Vakhtang Maisaia told RBC-Ukraine that Russian political consultants have been advising Georgian Dream’s campaign strategy.
“I believe that a major mobilization of pro-European forces will take place on 26 October, similar to what happened in Moldova,” Maisaia said.
In Moldova on October 20, despite strong support in polls, the referendum on EU membership passed by a “razor-thin margin,” with 50.08% voting in favor. Meanwhile, incumbent President Maia Sandu fell short of securing victory in the first round of the election, with a runoff scheduled for early November. Sandu has alleged that Russia bought approximately 300,000 votes.
Georgian political analyst Gela Vasadze explained that the ruling party’s campaign focuses on fear of war, suggesting that only Georgian Dream can prevent conflict with Russia.
The opposition has prepared extensive election monitoring.
“We have prepared 4,000 volunteers who will assist international and national observers in monitoring the election to prevent fraud,” Maisaia told RBC-Ukraine.
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz, an analyst on South Caucasus issues at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, told RBC-Ukraine that post-election protests are likely:
“I think there will be a severe political crisis in Georgia after the election, as there will be two sets of voting results.”
Earlier, the European Union halted contacts with Georgia’s pro-Russian government, while 13 EU member states said in a statement that Georgia would not be able to join the EU unless it changed its political course.
Related:
- Bloomberg: Russian intelligence infiltrated Georgian state institutions amid push for EU, NATO membership
- Georgia’s EU path “de facto halted” as European Council calls for democratic reforms
- European institutions halt contacts with Georgia’s government
- EU deplores Georgia’s “family values” laws, warns of discrimination risks
- Georgia enacts controversial “foreign agents” law, NGOs vow opposition
- Georgian parliament defies president’s veto, approves Russain-style ‘foreign agents’ law
