On 12 October, conflicting reports emerged regarding the loss of a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft, with some sources claiming it was shot down by a Ukrainian F-16 jet. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on these claims but stated it could not independently verify them.
“ISW cannot independently confirm the Telegram channel’s claim, but if confirmed, this incident would mark the first Ukrainian shootdown of a Russian manned aircraft with a Western-provided F-16 fighter jet,” the think tank wrote.
According to ISW, a Russian milblogger closely affiliated with Russian aviation published a tribute to a lost Su-34 aircraft on 12 October, though no additional details about the incident were provided. A prominent Russian milblogger confirmed the death of the Su-34 crew but claimed the loss was not related to Ukrainian activity.
Additionally, a Russian Telegram channel, allegedly managed by Russian airborne (VDV) officers and staff of the Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet presumably shot down the Russian Su-34. The channel stated that the incident occurred while the Su-34 was dropping FAB glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPK) at a distance of about 50 kilometers from the frontline.
The same Telegram channel later addressed claims that the Su-34 could have crashed due to technical malfunction or human error. It noted that such scenarios would still highlight issues with the wear and tear of Russian aircraft, unprofessionalism among pilots, and pilot exhaustion.
The Telegram channel accused Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers of lying about the Su-34 crash and preventing Russian forces from developing plans to counter the Ukrainian F-16 threat. The channel claimed in March 2024 that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor had filed a complaint against it for “discrediting” a Russian military commander.
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