Ukrainian firepower has been improving since US lawmakers approved a much-needed military aid package this spring, though the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still under a lot of pressure from Russian forces.
As reported by the Associated Press, the influx of Western munitions has shrunk Kyiv’s artillery disadvantage, but Moscow’s forces are still slowly gaining ground along the snaking front line and will likely continue to do so through the summer, when the drier ground and longer days will only aid their push.
To counter Russian offensive operations, Kyiv has turned to a bend-but-don’t-break strategy to buy time until it can get more Western weapons and ammunition to the front. By ceding some territory, Ukraine has been able to fight from better defended positions, according to interviews with senior Ukrainian military leaders, soldiers and officers in the field, and analysts.
Russian advantage slowly shrinking
New weapons and ammunition have been trickling to the front line since US President Joe Biden signed off on the massive aid package in April. But it will take weeks, if not months, for Ukraine to fully replenish its depleted stocks.
“It takes time to load ships that must then cross the Atlantic. But we’re already seeing the (results). Russia’s artillery advantage was 7-to-1 at the start of the year, but is down to 5-to-1 now,” Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of defense, told AP.
Havryliuk said that to neutralize Russian airpower, Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 fighter jets, which he expects to arrive later this year and early next.
“With time, when we set everything up, we will reach an advantage in our airspace,” he said.
With US Congress agreeing to up the effort, shells are slowly but steadily being moved towards the contact line. The 110th Brigade, for example, which has been fighting near the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne, began receiving a trickle of new shells less than a month ago, said Ivan Sekach, a brigade press officer.
The new arrivals have improved the unit’s stocks by 75% compared to last winter, when supplies were so low that the military had no choice but to give up ground to save soldiers’ lives, he said.
“We need four times this amount to operate without counting each shell and prioritizing what to hit,” he said.
”Elastic band” strategy
Ukraine has deployed an elastic defensive strategy to buy time until it’s better armed and provisioned. In this way, Ukrainian troops are able to fight more efficiently and save personnel, military officials said.
“Time is in the favor of Ukraine and thus the rationale of an elastic band: You can cede a little territory and gain a little time. And then by the end of this year, Ukraine will have advantages that it’s never had before,” said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with military intelligence think tank IHS Jane’s.
Sekach said the improved flexibility has helped Ukrainian forces combat the Russian offensive.
“We had to spread out our positions and our logistics, too. We are doing it a lot smarter now,” he said before adding, “but don’t jinx it.”
Read more:
- Shmyhal: Kyiv expects to receive first F-16s this summer
- US Senate overwhelmingly approves Ukraine aid, Biden says he will sign the bill as soon as it reaches his desk (updated)
- US Senate advances Ukraine aid bill as Pentagon set to send $ 1 bn package once bill clears Senate and Biden
- Much of US military aid for Ukraine is already in Germany and Poland — CNN
- Zelenskyy and Biden discuss enhanced military aid for Ukraine following House vote
