Day 768: 1 April
Today, there is a lot of good news from the Kupiansk direction in northeastern Ukraine.
Here, Russian forces have been persistently attempting to close in on the critical city of Kupiansk for months. They have been alternating various attack vectors from multiple points along the entire line of contact, with a particular focus on Synkivka, a key area in this direction.
As some military analysts indicated, the Russian command appears to employ here the following tactic. Firstly, they launch an attack on one vector, usually with high-cost frontal attacks, both in personnel and equipment, which generally end up exhausting their combat capability.
At this point, this force has to pause to reconstitute itself, and simultaneously, the attack is initiated at another point of the front line. This sequence iterates again, allowing Russian forces to maintain the initiative and accumulate marginal gains over time.
As for Synkivka, the Ukrainian forces achieved a significant tactical victory after weeks of intense positional fighting. Recent geolocated images confirm that they successfully launched a decisive counterattack using armored fighting vehicles, and they have recaptured several positions north of Synkivka, effectively pushing the Russian forces back northward and into the forest.
The footage, filmed by a reconnaissance drone, starts with a Ukrainian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle arriving at a hamlet on the edge of the forest north of the village.
This area was, in previous weeks, controlled by Russian forces. The images show how the vehicle takes position and begins to riddle a Russian position located about 400 meters to the north with its 30-millimeter cannon. Moments later, the Russian position begins to burn due to secondary explosions.
Russian analysts confirmed in subsequent days that the surviving Russian forces in this position withdrew into the forest. At the same time, additional Russian forces located in a grove of trees east of this position also retreated a kilometer further northwest towards Vilshana. As you will recall, Russian forces maintain their main base in the village of Lyman Pershyi, located in the forest’s center.
As for the forest itself, Ukrainian forces also continued their extensive drone attacks, dropping shells on Russian trenches, equipment, and personnel. In particular, the footage also shows a large number of night operations, in which, thanks to night vision cameras, Ukrainian forces are also repelling Russian forces inside the forest.
Thanks to this counterattack, the Ukrainian forces have gained a small buffer zone next to the northern part of Synkivka, from the forest border to the road to Vilshana. A second video recorded by a Ukrainian fighter shows a brief walk through what was once one of the rows of houses north of the Synkivka, apparently without taking precautions as he walks, thus indicating this zone is now somehow away from the zero line. The shocking images show the high degree of destruction of what once was a village street. Every house, tree, and infrastructure is now completely demolished.
For the Ukrainian side, this breakthrough means that the Ukrainians are employing an active defense here and are taking advantage of any opportunity to conduct a counterattack, making clear the particular importance of this area for the defense of Kupiansk City. On the Russian side, the loss of positions could indicate that the Russian forces positioned here are badly degraded. Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash recently stated that Russian forces have intensified assaults along the frontline in the Kupiansk direction but noted that equipment and weapons shortages are limiting Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive operations in this direction.
In addition, Russian forces may be also prioritizing other directions of the front at the moment. In this regard, a renowned Ukrainian military analyst noted weeks ago that units of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, which until now had been fighting in the direction of Kupiansk, had been redeployed in the direction of Lyman, potentially showing a temporary prioritization of this line over Kupiansk direction.
Overall, the Ukrainian forces, demonstrating their unwavering resilience, continue to fight fiercely in front of the Synkiva defensive line.
They have successfully conducted a counterattack, recapturing several positions north of the settlement and establishing a buffer zone next to the Russian positions. Russian forces, on the other hand, appear to be significantly weakened.
The degradation of the Russian units on the ground, coupled with the fact that their reserves were relocated to another region, may allow Ukrainian forces to assume a more active stance.
The current setting may allow Ukrainians to increase the extent of their countermeasures by knocking off Russian forces from positions in front of Lyman Pershyi and Vilshana, making Russians even lose ground in the aftermath of their offensive operations.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
