Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive against Russian troops–Security Council Secretary. Kremlin revives info campaign to coerce West into forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms. Russia prepares false-flag operation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – Ukraine’s Intel.
Daily overview — Summary report, May 28
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, May 28, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:
Military Updates
Russian troops shelled nine oblasts of Ukraine over the last 24 hours. Ukrainian regional military administrations have said the Russian Army targeted nine regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts over the last 24 hours, UkrInform reported. On the evening of 26 May, Russian forces shelled Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from artillery systems. According to the reports, two civilians were killed and 32 injured in a missile attack on Dnipro city launched by invaders yesterday.
Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive against Russian troops, Security Council Secretary says – BBC. In his interview with BBC, Oleksii Danilov, the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council secretary, dismissed suggestions that the counteroffensive had already begun. However, the assault to retake occupied territories could begin “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or in a week,” he added. Danilov stressed that the Ukrainian Army would start the counteroffensive when commanders calculated “we can have the best result at that point of the war.”
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
Losses of the Russian army
Humanitarian
Enivronmental
Austria to finance demining equipment for Ukraine. Austria will finance land mine removal equipment worth 2,000,000 euros (about $2.15 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government said in a statement, according to CNN. “Since the beginning of Russian aggression, civilians in Ukraine have suffered from globally outlawed landmines and explosive remnants of war. These life-threatening obstacles deny people nationwide access to essential infrastructure,” the statement reads. “With already more than 250,000 km² of Ukrainian territory, the area contaminated by landmines in Ukraine is about three times the size of Austria.”
Russia prepares false-flag operation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – Ukraine’s Intel. Russia is preparing a massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours, according to Ukraine’s Intelligence. Russian forces are planning to attack the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and blame Ukraine. After that, the Russians will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine spox, Andrii Yusov, told RBK-Ukraine.
Support
Denmark establishes USD 133 mln fund to help Ukraine. On 26 May, Minister of Industry, Business, and Financial Affairs Morten Bødskov and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced that Denmark established a $133 million investment fund to help Ukrainian entrepreneurs and the agriculture industry. The fund will support Ukraine’s projects in the public and private sectors and will help the country to advance its technologies and implement innovative solutions into business, Yulia Sviridenko, Ukraine’s First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, said.
Some 400 Ukrainian soldiers have started US Abrams tank training, Pentagon says – NYT. According to the Pentagon, the first group of about 400 Ukrainian soldiers has started training in Germany on how to operate and maintain American M1 Abrams tanks, The New York Times reported on 27 May. In Germany, approximately 200 troops, equivalent to an armored battalion, have commenced combined arms training at Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels training ranges, according to a statement by Lt-Col Garron Garn, a spokesperson for the Pentagon.
Ukraine asks Germany to provide Taurus cruise missiles – Reuters. Ukraine has asked Germany to supply it with Taurus cruise missiles, an air-launched weapon with a range of some 500 km, a spokesperson for the German Defence Ministry said on 27 May, Reuters reports. Confirming a report by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the spokesperson stated that Germany received the request several days ago but declined to provide additional details or assess the likelihood of supplying missiles to Ukraine.
New Developments
Zelenskyy imposes sanctions on 220 Russian, Belarusian companies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has imposed new sanctions on more than 220 Russian and Belarusian companies which help Kremlin’s war machine. The restrictions also targeted 51 individuals including scientists and managing directors of factories that repair equipment for the needs of the Russian military. The list of sanctions includes Minsk Automobile Plant, Minsk Mechanical Plant, and Monolit, the Vitebsk Radio Components Plant.
Kamikaze drones reportedly attack oil facility in Russia’s Pskov Oblast 450 km from Ukraine. A one-way attack drone attack targeted an oil pipeline infrastructure in the Pskov Oblast of Russia, according to the region’s governor, Mikhail Vedernikov. He reported no casualties in the early morning explosion near the Pskov village of Litvinovo in Nevelsky District, later updating that two UAVs attacked the facility. According to the Russian Telegram channel Baza, around 5:30 a.m., the attack targeted the Transneft pumping station, damaging the facades and windows of three administrative buildings.
Kremlin revives info campaign to coerce West into forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms – ISW. The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to Russia.
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of May 27, 2022:
Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian offensive operations had dramatically decreased to two skirmishes in the Bakhmut direction, and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar attributed this decrease to the Russian relief-in-place and regrouping of forces in the area.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) and in the direction of Predtechyne (15km southwest of Bakhmut).[2] Maliar stated that Ukrainian forces hold dominant elevated positions north and south of Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces stopped combat operations on May 26 and 27 to fulfill other unspecified tasks.[3] Maliar also stated that Ukrainian forces continue to control positions in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut City.[4] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are not conducting active operations aimed at regaining positions in Bakhmut City itself despite the possible continuation of localized Ukrainian counterattacks northwest and southwest of the city.[5]
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated that Wagner mercenaries are withdrawing from the city of Bakhmut and are “regrouping to another three locations.”[6] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reiterated that Wagner forces continued to withdraw from Bakhmut city on May 27.[7] Prigozhin’s statements are likely true given the decrease in Russian offensive capabilities around Bakhmut and Ukrainian statements regarding the situation in Bakhmut.
The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces have likely entered Bakhmut city as of May 24 and begun clearing operations.[8] ISW previously observed elements of the 132nd Separate Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade of the DNR’s 1st Army Corps operating in the Bakhmut direction after previously fighting in the Avdiivka area.[9] It is unclear at this time if elements of the 132nd Brigade are operating inside of the city, but DNR Head Denis Pushilin previously raised the DNR flag in Bakhmut – which likely indicates that the DNR forces are assuming control over Bakhmut.[10] Pushilin also indicated that DNR elements were clearing the city as of May 23.[11]
The Russian transfer of DNR elements to Bakhmut may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command has heavily committed a variety of DNR elements to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[12] Russian attacks around Avdiivka-Donetsk City area appear to have been decreasing in recent days, which may be connected to the transfer of DNR forces to Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted 13 combat operations in eastern Ukraine, of which seven attacks were in the Marinka area (about 19km west from Donetsk City).[13] The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported that Russian forces attacked 20 times in Marinka alone on the day Wagner forces declared victory over Bakhmut on May 20.[14] The Russian offensives around Avdiivka have been steadily decreasing since at least April 8 after the Russian military command attempted to intensify offensive operations near the settlement in mid-March, and the transfer of DNR units to Bakhmut may further slow Russian efforts on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[15] The Russian military command may be transferring DNR units operating in the well-defended Avdiivka-Donetsk City area to avoid making other directions vulnerable or to ensure quick reinforcements for Bakhmut city.
The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut’s flanks with regular formations, however. The UK MoD assessed that elements of the 31st Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have likely transferred from the Svatove-Kreminna line to reinforce Bakhmut’s flanks in recent weeks.[16] Ukrainian military officials previously reported that Russian forces are transferring unspecified VDV, motorized rifle, and special forces units to the Bakhmut direction after successful Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut‘s flanks.[17] ISW also observed Cossack units operating in Soledar, although these units likely were previously operating in the area.[18]
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership. Girkin openly accused Prigozhin of planning to conduct a coup amid the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive and of continuously violating Russian censorship laws against the discreditation of the Russian army and military command.[19] Girkin warned of “mutiny” if Prigozhin is “allowed” to lead the Wagner Group. Girkin noted that Prigozhin ordered for the Wagner forces to withdraw to the Wagner bases deep inside of Russia on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He also claimed that Wagner personnel had never taken oaths promising not to engage in combat against Russia or its military.[20] Prigozhin stated on May 27 that Wagner will decide later on if it will fight in Ukraine or in another country, which indicates that Prigozhin retains the ability to command his own army outside of the formal Russian military command structure.[21] Girkin also recently criticized the Russian military command for failing to address Prigozhin’s open and vulgar conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), even warning that Prigozhin will “devour” the Russian military officials who “bet” in his favor as he seeks to increase his political power.[22] A member of Girkin’s Angry Patriots Club claimed that the conflict between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Prigozhin is developing into a conflict between the Russian military and Wagner forces but that Putin is not paying attention.[23] Girkin’s and his associates’ criticisms are largely consistent with Prigozhin’s continued prioritization of his own personal aims over those of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the broader operational situation near Bakhmut.[24] Prigozhin’s decision to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut and, apparently, from active combat on the eve of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is strategically questionable.
Ukrainian officials denied Western reporting that suggested that a Chinese diplomat expressed interest in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine amidst the likely renewal of Russia’s information campaign surrounding negotiations. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on May 27 that he contacted his European counterparts who recently met with Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui and that they denied that Li had expressed interest in a ceasefire that would see Russia retain control of occupied territories, as a May 26 Wall Street Journal report suggested.[25] Li Hui visited Moscow on May 26 reportedly to discuss a negotiated settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a visit that the Kremlin likely used to attempt to renew a recurring information operation falsely claiming that Russia is open to serious negotiations.[26] The Kremlin previously intensified this information operation in December 2022 to attempt to delay the provision of Western tanks and other advanced military equipment to Ukraine in order to set conditions for Russia’s 2023 winter-spring offensive.[27] The Kremlin is likely reintroducing the information operation intending to weaken Western willingness to send critical security assistance to Ukraine ahead of potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
The Kremlin has established a pattern in this information operation in which some Russian officials express feigned interest in negotiations while other Russian officials simultaneously reiterate Putin’s maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine.[28] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated on May 26 that the conditions for a ”comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine include the cessation of hostilities by Ukrainian forces, the end of Western security assistance to Ukraine, the Ukrainian return to a “neutral non-aligned status,” the explicit Ukrainian refusal to join NATO and the EU, and the recognition of Russia’s annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine.[29] Galuzin’s reiteration of Russia’s maximalist objectives coincide with Putin’s alleged expression of Russian interest in negotiations during a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva on May 26.[30]
Key Takeaways
- Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city.
- The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city.
- The Russian transfer of DNR elements to Bakhmut may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut’s flanks with regular formations, however.
- Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership.
- Ukrainian officials denied Western reporting that suggested that a Chinese diplomat expressed interest in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine amidst the likely renewal of Russia’s information campaign surrounding negotiations.
- Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk and south of Kreminna.
- Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike rear logistics nodes in southern Zaporizhzhia oblast.
- The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned on May 26 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct large scale provocations to create radiological danger at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group “Council of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to ongoing and future Russian force generation efforts.
- Russian authorities are escalating efforts to portray Russia as a safe guardian of Ukrainian children.
