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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 252: Overnight Ukraine’s Air Force downs 12 out of 13 drones

byHans Petter Midttun
02/11/2022
24 minute read
Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 252: Overnight Ukraine’s Air Force downs 12 out of 13 drones
Article by: Hans Petter Midttun

Overnight Ukraine’s Air Force downs 12 out of 13 drones. The power supply is restricted in seven oblasts of Ukraine on Tuesday. Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the directions of Svatove and Kreminna. Russian forces continued defensive preparations while Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast. Russians strengthen their positions in Kherson Oblast, using concrete bunkers. Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut and around Donetsk City. Russian forces continued to strengthen Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. 568 settlements de-occupied in the Kharkiv region. Lukashenko transfers 20 more BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles to Russia. European Commissioner for Energy arrived in Kyiv. 17 ships went through “grain corridor” after Russia’s demarche. IAEA’s Ukraine inspections to address ‘dirty bomb’ accusations have begun. The Russian MoD started its semi-annual fall conscription cycle.

Daily overview — Summary report, November 2 

A map of approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine:

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 18, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below:

Situation in Ukraine. November 1, 2022. Source: ISW.

 

“Russian forces are trying to keep the temporarily captured territories, concentrating efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions. Conducts offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Novopavka directions.

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defence Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske and Bilohorivka settlements of Luhansk oblast and Verkhnyokamyanske, Spirne, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Pavlivka and Prechystivka of Donetsk oblast.

Russian forces are shelling units of the Defence Forces along the contact line, carrying out border fortification equipment in separate directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. It continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.

Over the past day, Russian forces launched 7 missiles, 47 airstrikes and more than 90 MLRS attacks.

Areas of more than 25 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. Among them are Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Mykilske in Zaporizhzhia oblast and Pavlivka in Donetsk oblast. The threat of new strikes and the use of attack UAVs remains, in particular, from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes. The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

Russian forces shelled in other directions:

  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars and artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hai and Senkivka in the Chernihiv oblast and Mefedivka, Vovkivka, Zarutske, Myropillya, Hirka, Yunakivka, Zapsillia and Oleksandrivka in the Sumy oblast;
Kharkiv Battle. November 1, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, artillery and MLRS, in the areas of Hlyboke, Kamianka, Vilkhuvatka, Neskuchne, Vovchansk, Kozacha Lopan, Milove, Starytsa, Strilecha, Veterynarne, Udy and Chuhunivka settlements;
  • in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions – from mortars, artillery and MLRS, in the areas of the settlements of Dvorichna, Kupiansk, Kucherivka, Kislivka, Berestove, Dvorichne, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Ivanivka, Kotlyarivka, Makiivka, Nadiya, Nevske, Yampolivka and Terny;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Zelenopillia and Mayorsk;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, artillery and MLRS, in the areas of Avdiivka, Mariinka, Vodyane, Paraskoviivka, Kamianka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Netaylove and Novomykhailivka settlements;
Donetsk Battle. November 1, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • in the Novopavlivskyi direction – from tanks, mortars, artillery and MLRS, in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Pavlivka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, Novomayorske, Vremivka, Neskuchne and Paraskoviivka settlements;
  • in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from tanks, mortars, artillery and MLRS, in the areas of the settlements of Hulyaipole, Hulyaipilske, Mali Shcherbaki, Novoandriivka, Orihiv, Pavlivka, Zaliznychne, Dorozhnyanka, Stepove, Olhivske, Malynivka, Novodanilivka and Chervone.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. November 1, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • In the Pivdennyy Buh direction, more than 18 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire. The city of Nikopol and the village of Illinka in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast were hit by shelling from enemy rocket launchers.

The forced so-called “evacuation” of civilians from settlements in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson oblast continues. In particular, the occupiers are taking people away by bus from the settlement of Velyka Lepetykha. Departure by private transport is prohibited.

The movement of archival documents from the administrative buildings of Kherson by the Russian occupiers was noted.

[The occupiers continue to forcibly relocate the civilian population in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson oblast. Russian forces are resorting to intimidation of civilian residents, spreading information about the possible undermining of the Kakhovska HPP dam. At the same time, the local population is deprived of means of communication.]

[The Russian occupation administration of Kherson was moved to the city of Skadovsk.]

[The occupying command is trying to compensate for the constant loss of personnel in enemy units that take direct part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine with mobilized servicemen. So-called “work” is carried out by the employees of the FSB of the Russian Federation on those who refuse to participate in combat operations.]

[According to updated information, the destruction of Russian forces‘s ammunition depots in the Zaporizhzhia region was confirmed on October 29. In addition, 5 units of military equipment were destroyed as a result of fire damage to the concentration areas of the Russian occupiers. Losses of personnel are up to 30 eliminated and about 100 wounded.]

According to the updated information, enemy losses were confirmed in the area of ​​Muzikyvka settlement of Kherson oblast on October 29. Thus, as a result of fire damage, the anti-aircraft missile-gun complex “Pantsir-S1” was destroyed, and up to ten units of other military equipment of Russian forces were damaged. On October 30, 12 invaders were eliminated in the area of ​​Snihurivka, Mykolaiv oblast.

According to available information, Russian forces deployed an additional hospital in the area of ​​Zavitne Bazhanya settlement of Donetsk oblast, which is currently full of wounded servicemen of the occupation forces.

Despite the official end of mobilization on the territory of the Russian Federation, summonses continue to be sent to men of conscription age.

The aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine made 33 strikes on Russian forces last day. 26 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, as well as 7 positions of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, were hit. During the past day, Ukrainian soldiers shot down a helicopter, 2 UAVs of the Orlan-10 type, 6 UAVs of the Shahed-136 type and 2 UAVs of the “Kub” type.

Over the past 24 hours, units of missile troops and artillery of the Defense Forces have hit 4 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition warehouses and 6 other important military objects of Russian forces.“

Military Updates

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587580250317275138

Overnight drone attack: Ukraine’s Air Force downs 12 out of 13 drones, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the Ukrainian Air Force. “12 out of 13 loitering munitions have been destroyed by air defence forces in eastern and central parts of Ukraine. Anti-aircraft gunners, aircraft, and mobile units from Air Command East shot down six of the drones.

Another six drones were brought down in the area under the responsibility of the Air Command Centre by fighter jets, anti-aircraft gunners, and mobile units of Ukraine’s Ground Forces and territorial defence forces.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587456352112316416

568 settlements de-occupied in the Kharkiv region, Ukrinform reports, citing Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. “In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have already liberated 568 settlements from Russian invaders. Within the de-occupied settlements, where power supply services have not yet been restored, equipment and fuel stocks are being created and individual heating devices are being purchased for local residents.

As of October 21, 2022, a total of 551 settlements were de-occupied in the Kharkiv region and 88 in the Kherson region.

Russian occupiers strengthen their positions in Kherson Oblast, using concrete bunkers, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “The Russian occupiers are bringing concrete bunkers towards the village of Heroiske (Kherson Oblast), Yevhen Ryshchuk, the Mayor of Oleshky city, Kherson Oblast, has said.”

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • The owner of the Russian Wagner Group private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated on 23 October that Wagner forces were making advances of 100-200m per day, which he claimed was ‘normal in modern warfare’.

  • According to their military doctrine, Russian forces plan to advance 30km or more per day in most conditions. In February, Russian forces planned to make a 1000km advance through Ukraine within a month. In September, Ukrainian forces achieved advances of over 20km per day.
  • In the last two months, Prigozhin has abandoned any pretence that he is not associated with Wagner and has been more explicit in his public statements. He is likely trying to burnish his credibility within the stressed Russian national security system.
  • Imagery showed two MiG-31K FOXHOUND interceptor jets were almost certainly parked at Belarus’s Machulishchi Airfield on 17 October, with a large canister stored nearby within a protective earth berm. It is likely that the canister is associated with the AS-24 KILLJOY air launched ballistic missile, a large munition which the MiG-31K variant is adapted to carry.
  • Russia has fielded KILLJOY since 2018, but it has not previously been deployed in Belarus. Russia has occasionally launched these weapons during the Ukraine war, but stocks are likely very limited. It continues to expend its advanced long-range munitions against targets of limited operational importance.
  • With a range of over 2000km, basing KILLJOY in Belarus gives Russia little added advantage in terms of striking additional targets within Ukraine. It has likely carried out the deployment mainly to message to the West and to portray Belarus as increasingly complicit in the war.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 2 November, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

  • Personnel – about 73270 (+800),
  • Tanks – 2714 (+16),
  • Armoured combat vehicles – 5525 (+24),
  • Artillery systems – 1733 (+3),
  • Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 387 (+4),
  • Air defence means – 198 (+1),
  • Aircraft – 277 (+1),
  • Helicopters – 258 (+1),
  • Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 4153 (+10),
  • Vessels/boats – 16 (+0),
  • UAV operational and tactical level – 1438 (+23),
  • Special equipment – 154 (+0),
  • Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
  • Cruise missiles – 397 (+0)

The occupiers suffered the biggest losses in the Avdiivka and Lyman directions

In early November, Iran plans to send a batch of more than 200 combat drones to the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian General Staff reports. “At the beginning of November, a batch of more than 200 combat drones Shahed-136, Mohajer-6 and Arash-2 is planned to be sent from Iran to the Russian Federation.

The UAVs will be delivered via the Caspian Sea to the port of Astrakhan. The drones will arrive in a disassembled state. They will be assembled, repainted and applied with Russian markings in Russia, in particular “Geranium-2”.

Since September 13, when the occupiers first used Iranian kamikaze drones against Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defence Forces shot down more than 300 such UAVs.”

Lukashenko transfers 20 more BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles to Russia: they go to occupied Luhansk, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Belaruski Hajun, and the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus. “It is reported that 20 BMP-2, de-mothballed from the 969th tank reserve base, went to the Volokonovka railway station (Belgorod Oblast, Russia) and further in the direction of occupied Luhansk.

Thus, over the past month, Belarus has transferred to the Russian Federation at least 94 T-72A tanks, from 36 to 44 Ural trucks and two dozen BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles.”

Shoigu assures Russians that conscripts will not be sent to combat zones in Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing RIA Novosti; RBC; and RT. “Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that conscripts will not be sent to war with Ukraine.”

On 30 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the autumn military draft; 120,000 people are supposed to be called up for military service from 1 November till 31 December.

According to ISW, “the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to prevent draft dodging by trying to deceive the Russian population into believing that autumn conscripts will not be sent to fight in Ukraine.”

Kremlin: No decree needed to end ‘partial mobilisation’, Reuters reports. “The Kremlin said on Tuesday in a briefing that it did not need to issue a legal decree to end Russia’s first military mobilisation since World War Two, a day after President Vladimir Putin said he would consult with lawyers on the matter. […]

The fact that the Kremlin has not rescinded the original presidential decree or issued a new one cancelling it has raised concerns that it may be keeping the door open to further call-ups.”

Humanitarian 

The power supply is restricted in seven oblasts of Ukraine on Tuesday, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of Ukrenergo. “The restrictions started on Tuesday at 06:00, stated the operator. Power outages will be applied to all categories of consumers in the central (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr oblasts and the city of Kyiv) and northern (Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts) oblasts of Ukraine.

Ukrenergo emphasises that temporary controlled restrictions are necessary to reduce the load on the power network […]. This enables technicians to restore the damaged energy facilities as soon as possible.”

European Commissioner for Energy Arrived in Kyiv, European Pravda reports. “European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson has arrived in Kyiv after the Russian rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to increase support for the Ukrainian energy sector. Last week, Kadri Simson called on European Union governments and private companies to donate more money for equipment for Ukraine’s energy sector.

Ukraine requested energy equipment to help overcome the consequences of Russian terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure through the NATO Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC) and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism (EARCC).”

17 ships went through “grain corridor” after Russia’s demarche, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Over the two days that passed since Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the Black Sea Initiative, 17 ships went through the “grain corridor” in both directions; most of them exited Ukrainian ports. This was reported by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine.

The Ministry has explained that another three ships with 85,000 tonnes of agricultural products left the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi on Tuesday, 1 November; two of them were heading towards Libya and Morocco. Two tankers have arrived to get loaded; they are going to take vegetable oil to Jordan and Romania. 

The Ministry has added that, over the three months of agreements on the “grain corridor”, 422 ships exported almost 10 million tonnes of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports; this number could have been higher by a third if not for Russia slowing down the inspection process in the Bosphorus.”

UN, Ukraine, Türkiye agree no vessel movements under grain deal on Wednesday, Reuters reports. “Delegations from Ukraine, Türkiye and the United Nations agreed not to plan any movement of vessels on Nov. 2 as part of the Black Sea grain deal, the United Nations secretariat at the joint coordination centre said on Tuesday.”

Insurance for Ukraine grains shipments cut after Russia suspension, Reuters reports. “Insurers are no longer offering new cargo insurance cover for shipments out of Ukraine through a UN-backed safe corridor after Russia suspended its participation, industry sources said on Tuesday.”

Putin: we are not ending participation in grain export deal, just suspending it, Reuters reported on Monday. “Russia is not ending its participation in a deal to export much-needed Ukrainian grain through Black Sea ports but rather is suspending it, President Vladimir Putin said on Monday. Putin’s comments were his first since Moscow announced on Saturday it was freezing participation in the United Nations-brokered Black Sea agreement after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea. […]

Ukraine must guarantee that there will be no threats to civilian vessels or Russian supply vessels, said Putin, noting that under the terms of the deal, Russia is responsible for ensuring security.”

Hans Petter Midttun: A glimpse into Putin’s bizarre world: The grain deal was needed to protect civilian shipping against Russian indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian ports and shipping, leaving more than 100 vessels and 1,000 sailors stranded in Ukrainian ports after the full-scale war started. Having experienced a Ukrainian counterattack – after Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian Navy, attacked its ports, launched multiple naval cruise missiles against critical infrastructure across Ukraine, taken control over its maritime economic zones, occupied its gas rigs and illegally extracted its gas resources AND established an effective maritime blockade – Russia retaliates by cutting parts of the global food supplies to trigger international pressure on Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587465947308236800

OHCHR recorded 16,295 civilian casualties in Ukraine as of October 31. 6,430 were killed (including 402 children) and 9,865 injured (including 739 children).

Legal 

IAEA’s Ukraine inspections to address ‘dirty bomb’ accusations have begun, Reuters reports. “The UN atomic watchdog has started its inspections of two nuclear sites in Ukraine being carried out at Kyiv’s request to address Russian accusations that it is working on a so-called ‘dirty bomb’, the watchdog’s chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday.

Director General Grossi said IAEA inspectors had begun – and would soon complete – verification activities at (the) two locations in Ukraine, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement, adding that Grossi would later this week provide his initial conclusions about the inspections.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587625544681766917

430 children were killed, 825 children injured, 9,755 deported by foe forces, and 246 reported missing – the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports as of November 2. 2,719 educational establishments are damaged as a result of shelling and bombings, 332 of them are destroyed fully.

Support 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587617991285514243

National Security Council of Ukraine identifies Russian statesman from Putin’s inner circle who suggested destroying Ukraine’s energy facilities, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council. “Sergey Kiriyenko, the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the President’s Office of the Russian Federation, is the “main ideologue” of the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.”

Russian mobilization in Crimea constitutes another violation of international law – EU, Ukrinform reports, citing a statement by the EU spokesperson on Russian conscription and mobilisation in Crimea. “Today, the Russian Federation has launched yet another conscription campaign in the illegally annexed Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol to draft Crimean residents in the Russian Federation Armed Forces. This campaign comes shortly after Russia’s mobilisation announced on 21 September, which included the groundless targeting of Crimean residents… Today’s step constitutes yet another violation of international law by Russia, the statement says.

According to the EU spokesperson, Crimean Tatars are being deliberately and disproportionately targeted in the implementation of Russia’s mobilisation order and reportedly forcibly involved in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, their real and traditional homeland.

The EU does not and will not recognise the Russian illegal annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. It also firmly rejects and unequivocally condemns the illegal annexation by Russia of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. All these territories are and remain Ukraine, the document says.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587519663696650241

Environment

United States to send eight NASAMS to Ukraine — Pentagon, Ukrinform reports, citing a US Senior Defense Official . “The US government will transfer eight NASAMS air defence systems to Ukraine, and two of them will arrive in Ukraine in the near future.

The United States has already provided [Ukraine with] 1,400 Stingers, which is short-range air defence, and our allies and partners have also provided considerable numbers of short-range air defence systems. The US have also committed eight NASAMS and associated munitions, and two of those will be in Ukraine in the very near future, with six more to be provided later. We also have committed to a suite of counter-unmanned aerial systems, including the VAMPIRE system and other radar systems, since we know that the UAS threat is also a serious threat right now, he said.”

Supplies of air defence systems to Ukraine remain a priority for the US, allies – Pentagon, Ukrinform reports, citing the US Defense Department Spokesman, Brigadier General Patrick Ryder. “In terms of air defence capabilities, this continues to be a priority for the US government, for the Department of Defense to work closely with the Ukrainian side, with our allies and our partners to try to get them [Ukraine] additional air defence capability, he said.

Ryder noted that the first NASAMS systems would be delivered to Ukraine very soon, and the Ukrainian side will announce when they arrive in the country. At the same time, he said, the United States will continue to look at other ways to strengthen this support for Ukraine.

At the same time, according to him, the Pentagon and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin continue to personally contact allies and partners. The purpose of these negotiations is to identify what other defence capabilities might exist within their own stocks and within their own defence, Ryder said.”

This year, allies provide Ukraine weapons worth 86% of Russia’s military budget – Kyslytsya, Ukrinform reports, citing Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya. “The total defence and security assistance provided to Ukraine by Western nations in the current year stands at EUR 41.3 billion, which is 86% of the military budget of the aggressor power, the Russian Federation.

According to the data provided by the diplomat, the total military aid from Western partners over the 10 months of 2022 exceeded Ukraine’s 2022 defence budget by 7.6 times.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1587476321806041094

EU seeks ways to help Ukrainian energy sector after Russian attacks, Reuters reports. “The European Union is exploring ways to increase help for Ukraine’s energy sector following “cruel and inhumane” Russian attacks that have caused widespread power cuts, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said on Tuesday. […]

She said Ukraine needed specific equipment and tools to repair damage to its energy infrastructure, and that she had told Zelensky the EU was reaching out to partners to help with the dedicated support needed. Russia’s attacks were cruel and inhumane, but not surprising, Simson said, adding on Twitter that she was making all efforts to increase financial, technical & practical help.

The additional help will have to come from EU institutions, member states, international partners and private donors, she said. Simson indicated the EU’s ability to rapidly provide all the spare parts Ukraine needs may be limited, but said that the 27-member bloc would do all it could to provide equipment. The need for spare parts is so big that there is no storage available to deliver them on the spot, she said.”

The European Commission has prepared three financial support mechanisms for Ukraine, Ukraine Business News reports, citing Politico. “The European Commission wants to attract up to €18B in loans and grants to cover half of Ukraine’s expected budget deficit of $38-40B in 2023. The first option, which the Commission describes as the most advantageous, is to borrow the money against the so-called headroom, or the difference between the maximum amount the bloc can call in from EU countries and actual EU spending.

The second option is a repeat of the method used thus far, whereby countries provide budgetary guarantees to the Commission. But this time, national guarantees would need to cover 100% of the amount, instead of the 61% previously guaranteed, as “there is no other budgetary cover” left in the EU budget, the document says. In addition, EU countries would also need to provide counter-guarantees in case of default from their peers if losses occur. The third option is similar to the second but without national guarantees.”

New Developments 

  1. Putin on negotiations with Ukraine: We can wait, Ukrainska Pravda “We reached an agreement with them in Istanbul, but they’ve thrown all of that into the bin. And now they’re refusing to discuss anything with us. How can we talk about possible agreements if the other side has no desire to even talk to us? Well, we can wait. Maybe some necessary conditions will eventually arise; we have made our goodwill known. It is beyond any doubt and won’t change, [Putin said during a press conference on Monday]”
  2. Kyiv region may remain without electricity for two weeks – governor, Ukrinform “Oleksiy Kuleba, the head of the Kyiv regional military administration, has said he does not rule out that the Kyiv region may be completely left without electricity if Russia continues attacking critical infrastructure. […] There is a real threat that we may be left without electricity for up to two weeks. And we are already preparing for this, Kuleba said.”
  3. Medvedev threatens Ukraine with nuclear weapons for liberating its lands, Ukrainska Pravda “Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has announced that Ukraine’s liberation of its territories is a “direct reason” for Russia to use nuclear weapons.”
  4. Ukraine seeks Russia’s expulsion from G20, says Putin’s hands ‘stained in blood’, Reuters “Putin publicly acknowledged ordering missile strikeson Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure,” spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Twitter. With his hands stained in blood, he must not be allowed to sit at the table with world leaders. Putin’s invitation to the Bali summit must be revoked, and Russia expelled from G20.”
  5. Erdogan set to discuss “grain corridors” with Zelensky and Putin, Ukrinform reports, citing the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. “In the coming days, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to hold talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the issue of further operations of “grain corridors” in the Black Sea.”
  6. Russia’s Minister of Defence to meet with Belarusian military Wednesday about joint measures, Ukrainska Pravda “[The parties] intend to discuss the implementation of the plan of joint measures undertaken by defence ministries of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation aiming at ensuring the military security of the Union State for 2022-2024. Following the mobilisation in Russia, hundreds of drafted Russians started arriving in Belarus for military training.”
  7. Germany tells Serbia: you have to choose between EU and Russia, Reuters “Serbia must decide whether it wants to join the European Union or enter into a partnership with Russia, Germany told Belgrade on Tuesday, two days before six Western Balkan countries are scheduled to discuss closer cooperation in Berlin. “The need for a decision is coming to a head in view of geopolitical developments,” a German government representative said in reference to Russia’s war in Ukraine.”
  8. Ukraine’s Constitutional Court declares law abolishing parliamentary immunity constitutional, Ukrinform reports, citing the court’s press service. “Ukraine’s Constitutional Court has recognized the law “On the Introduction of Amendments to Article 80 of the Constitution of Ukraine (Regarding the Immunity of People’s Deputies of Ukraine)” as complying with the Constitution of Ukraine.”
  9. Russia fines Wikimedia Foundation over Ukraine war entries, Reuters reports. “A Russian court on Tuesday fined Wikipedia owner Wikimedia Foundation 2 million roubles ($32,600) over articles relating to the Ukraine war, the head of the foundation’s Russia chapter told Reuters. Stanislav Kozlovsky said the penalty was imposed for not deleting entries that Russia has demanded be removed. He said the foundation would appeal.The two articles, in Russian, were titled “Non-violent resistance of Ukraine’s civilian population in the course of Russia’s invasion” and “Evaluations of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine”. Kozlovsky said there is a risk that the number of cases against the Wikimedia Foundation will increase. There are many articles on Wikipedia about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and only three court cases so far, he added.”

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 1 November, 2022:

“Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counter-offensive operations in the direction of Svatove. […] A Russian milblogger claimed […] that unsuccessful Ukrainian assaults from the direction of Kupiansk in the past weeks have cost Ukrainian forces significant equipment and manpower, which is forcing Ukrainian commanders to prepare for Russian counterattacks in the direction of Kupiansk. Another Russian milblogger claimed that it would be highly unlikely that Russian forces would be able to launch an offensive in the Kupiansk direction until late November or December. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces crossed the Zherebets River near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove) and are preparing to resume an assault on Russian positions in the area. Russian sources claimed that Russian BARS (Combat Reserve) 13 and 16 detachments are currently defending areas in the Svatove direction. The BARS-13 commander reported that Ukrainian forces have increased their grouping in the Svatove direction and intend to take Svatove this week.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counter-offensive operations in the direction of Kreminna on November 1. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in the direction of the Kreminna-Svatove highway. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing to conduct offensive operations toward Chervonopopivka to access Kreminna from the north. The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces near Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna) intend to launch offensives that will cut off the highway between Kreminna and Svatove. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces periodically launch counterattacks west of Kreminna near Terny (17km northwest of Kreminna) and Torske (15km west of Kreminna) to constrain the actions of Ukrainian forces in the direction of the highway. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully tried to assault Kreminna from the direction of Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna). ISW cannot verify these Russian claims. The Luhansk Oblast Administration confirmed on November 1 that Ukrainian forces recaptured Nevske.[34]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian troops are continuing active defensive actions, conducting aerial reconnaissance, and forming defensive lines on the east bank (left) of the Dnipro River. Residents reported that Russian forces are digging trenches and settling in for the defense of the east bank, including along the Nova Kakhovka-Dnipryany-Korsunka line (on the east bank about 45km east of Kherson City), Hola Prystan (8km southwest of Kherson City) and as far south as Mykhailivka, which lies well into Russian-occupied territory about 45km south of Kherson City. Such reports indicate that Russian troops are preparing for protracted defensive operations on the east bank.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov and other Russian sources claimed that Russian troops repelled an attempted Ukrainian attack in the direction of Beryslav. […] ISW cannot independently verify these Russian claims.

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas, logistics nodes, and military assets in Kherson Oblast […]. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on October 31 that Ukrainian rocket and artillery units conducted 180 fire missions against Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian aviation struck a Russian stronghold in Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that Ukrainian forces also hit Russian ammunition warehouses in Beryslav Raion. Social media users additionally reported explosions in Kozatske, near Nova Kakhovka, on November 1.

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia’s reliance on Iranian-made weapon systems. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 1 that Iranian officials intend to send a shipment of more than 200 Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Arash-2 combat drones to Russia. The GUR reported that Iran will send Russia the drones in a disassembled state and that Russian personnel will assemble them with Russian markings. CNN reported on November 1 that unnamed officials from a western country that closely monitors Iranian weapons programs stated that Iran plans to send a thousand weapons to Russia by the end of the year, including surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles and combat drones. This would be the first confirmed instance of Iran sending Russia advanced precision-guided missiles. Russia likely negotiated the additional Iranian shipment of weapons systems due to the depletion of its stockpile of cruise missile and drone systems over the course of the war in Ukraine, particularly during the Russian campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The GUR reported that Ukrainian air defenses have shot down more than 300 Shahed-136 drones since Russia starting using them in Ukraine on September 13. Russia will likely continue to use drone attacks and missile strikes against critical infrastructure to try to offset the failures and limitations of its conventional forces on the frontline. Russian dependence on Iranian-made systems, and therefore on Iran, will likely increase.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) started its semi-annual fall conscription drive on November 1, amidst reports of continuing covert mobilization throughout the country. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that 2,700 draft committees across 85 federal subjects began the fall conscription call-up of 120,000 men. Shoigu also stated that partial mobilization in Russia concluded. Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the Russian General Staff […] reiterated that Russia is conscripting 7,500 fewer men than in previous years and noted that partial mobilization postponed the conscription cycle by one month. Burdinsky claimed that conscripts will not serve in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, or Zaporizhzhia oblasts this year and will not participate in combat. Head of the 4th Directorate of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the Russian General Staff Vladimir Tsimlyansky added that most recruits will deploy to training formations and military units where they will train for five months, while others will receive specializations based on their skills and education level. The Russian MoD has conducted semi-annual conscription call-ups for decades and should be able to execute this process effectively and efficiently.  Any problems with the execution of the fall call-up would likely indicate that partial mobilization and the war in Ukraine have complicated a standard procedure.

Numerous Russian sources reported that Russian enlistment officers are continuing to mobilize men despite Shoigu’s previous announcements of the conclusion of partial mobilization and transition into the conscription period on October 28. Local Russian outlets reported instances of men receiving mobilization notices in Tyumen and St. Petersburg as of October 31. The Russian Central Military District (CMD) reportedly told journalists of a Russian outlet that mobilization processes will continue across Russia until Russian President Vladimir Putin signs a decree ending the mobilization period. Ukrainian Melitopol and Mariupol authorities also reported that Russian occupation authorities are continuing to coerce Ukrainians into volunteer battalions and territorial defense units.

Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev reportedly replaced Colonel-General Alexander Lapin as commander of the Central Military District (CMD). Several Russian milbloggers—including some who appear on Russian state television—noted that Mordichev has replaced Lapin in this position, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has not officially announced Mordichev’s appointment nor Lapin’s dismissal as of November 1. A Russian local outlet citing an unnamed official within the Russian MoD claimed that Mordichev will only replace Lapin as the commander of the “center“ forces in Ukraine for the duration of Lapin’s supposed three-week medical leave. A milblogger who frequently appears on Russian state media claimed that the Commander of the Russian Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, personally appointed Mordichev to replace Lapin due to his commitment to objective frontline reporting. If reports of Mordichev’s appointment are true, then the Kremlin may be attempting to appease the pro-war milblogger community that has been demanding transparency and more honest reporting. The milblogger added that Mordichev reportedly has “warm working relations” with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and that Kadyrov called Mordichev “the best commander” during their meeting in mid-March. Mordichev’s appointment may therefore indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to appease the siloviki faction—composed of Kadyrov and Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin—that has publicly criticized Lapin as well.  Lapin’s dismissal may have also been Surovikin’s recommendation as well, however, given that both commanders operated in the Luhansk Oblast area to seize Lysychansk and its surroundings in June. ISW cannot independently verify milblogger or Russian local outlet reports at this time. […]

Key Takeaways

  • Planned Iranian shipments of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia will likely further strengthen Russian reliance on Iran and Iranian-made weapons systems.
  • The Russian MoD started its semi-annual fall conscription cycle despite reports of Russian authorities covertly continuing mobilization measures.
  • Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District (SMD), Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev, reportedly replaced Colonel-General Alexander Lapin as commander of the Central Military District (CMD).
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is likely attempting to address critiques against his parallel military structures following Lapin’s reported dismissal.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the directions of Svatove and Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued defensive preparations while Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut and around Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces continued to strengthen Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian military structures are reportedly expanding training capabilities.

Russian occupation officials continued to set conditions for the long-term and permanent relocation of residents from the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.”

Interactive Map of Partisan Activity in Ukraine. Source: ISW.

The Institute for the Study of War has published an interactive map and assessment on verified Ukrainian partisan attacks against Russian occupation forces. “Effective Ukrainian partisan attacks are forcing the Kremlin to divert resources away from frontline operations to help secure rear areas, degrading Russia’s ability to defend against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives, let alone conduct their own offensive operations. Poor Russian operational security has enabled Ukrainian partisan attacks. Russia’s increasing manpower shortages are likely degrading Russian forces’ ability to effectively secure Russian rear areas against partisan attacks and simultaneously defend against Ukrainian counteroffensives. The Kremlin still has not effectively countered Ukraine’s organized partisan movement and is unlikely to have the capabilities to do so.”

Russia plans to deploy Iranian-made missiles north of Ukraine, against which we have no defence – Air Force spokesman, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force. “They will probably be delivered to the North of Ukraine; that’s where they can be launched from, in such a way as to threaten the whole of Ukraine. One [of these types of] missile[s is] of 300 km [range]; another [type of] missile [is] 700 km in range. These are ballistic missiles. We have no effective defence against these missiles.

It is theoretically possible to shoot them down, but in fact it is very difficult to do it with the means we have at our disposal. We have anti-air defence, but not anti-missile defence.”

Yurii Ihnat states that the Russians also want to purchase Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Iran, which are typically produced and deployed by Russian occupying forces. Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman explained that the Russians are running out of Iskander-Ms and have already begun to use up their emergency reserves of such missiles.”

Russian engineering troops arrive in Belarus to build barracks, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the National Resistance Center. “According to the Belarusian resistance group, Russian engineering troops are arriving in Belarus to build barracks and camps. It is noted that the work is being carried out as part of the creation of the so-called Russian-Belorusian combined force. The expected number of people in this military group is 20,000. Most of the barracks are planned to be built in Brest Oblast, located in a southwestern part of Belarus, which is where the Russian rear units arrive.

After the statement of Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, about the creation of a joint military group with the Russian Federation, the Russian Armed Forces have taken complete control of the air bases in the cities of Baranovichi and Lida.”

Consequences and what to do? 

A gap between the financial contributions of Ukraine’s allies and its financial commitments complicates the state budget deficit, Ukraine Business News reports. “The first quarter of 2023 is currently the most difficult challenge for Ukraine as far as covering the budget deficit due to the big difference between partners’ commitments to financial support and the necessary allocation of funds, said Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. He specified that the vast difference between obligations and payments creates a problem with liquidity and a threat of further financing measures with regard to the state budget deficit by the National Bank of Ukraine. This provokes negative consequences for inflation, the exchange rate, and macro stability.

In April 2022, the Ukrainian government informed its international partners that the monthly deficit was $5B. But the financial assistance received was $1.7B in April, $1.5B in May, $4.4B in June, $1.7B in July, $4.7B in August, and about $2B in September.”

Energy crisis chips away at Europe’s industrial might, Reuters reports. “Europe needs its industrial companies to save energy amid soaring costs and shrinking supplies, and they are delivering – demand for natural gas and electricity both fell in the past quarter. It is far too early to rejoice, though. The drop is not just because industrial companies are turning down thermostats, they are also shutting down plants that may never reopen. And while lower energy use helps Europe weather the crisis sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine and Moscow’s supply cuts, executives, economists and industry groups warn its industrial base may end up severely weakened if high energy costs persist.

Energy-intensive industries, such as aluminium, fertilisers, and chemicals are at risk of companies permanently shifting production to locations where cheap energy abounds, such as the United States. Even as an unusually warm October and projections of a mild winter helped drive prices lower, natural gas in the United States still costs about a fifth what companies pay in Europe.

A lot of companies are just quitting production,” Patrick Lammers, management board member at utility E.ON told a conference in London last month. “They actually demand destruct. That could lead to Europe de-industrialising very quickly, he added.

Euro-zone this month hit its weakest level since May 2020, signaling Europe was heading for a recession.

The International Energy Agency estimates European industrial gas demand fell by 25% in the third quarter from a year earlier. Analysts say widespread shutdowns had to be behind the drop because efficiency gains alone would not produce such savings.

“We are doing all we can to prevent a reduction in industrial activity,” an European Commission spokesperson said in an email.

But when the weather turns colder and households crank up heating, the industrial sector will be the first to face cuts in case of shortages, economists warn.

European industry has been shifting production to locations with cheaper labour and lower other costs for decades, but the energy crisis is accelerating the exodus, analysts said. […]

Western efforts to secure supplies not just for energy but also for key minerals used in electric vehicles and renewable infrastructure are also at risk from high energy prices. […] The feared industrial erosion is already underway. Europe became a net importer of chemicals for the first time ever this year, according to Cefic, the European Chemical Industry Council.”

 

Hans Petter Midttun: During nearly 9 years of reporting, I have tried to conceptualise the Hybrid War and outline its consequences on both Ukraine and the EU and NATO member states. I have argued that the war most Western politicians and media outlets describe as a “Russian- Ukrainian War” is a Russian induced confrontation with the West. Ukraine is only a crucial object in its quest for Great Power status at the cost of the US, NATO and the EU. I have repeatedly stressed that NATO is already a part of a broader confrontation. I have consistently argued for humanitarian intervention in line with the Alliance’s previous strategic concept and the UN Responsible to Protect doctrine. The seven arguments in favour of intervention have been presented. I have also highlighted why we need to confront the Russian nuclear “fait accompli strategy”. I do not buy into the Russian nuclear blackmail and  have argued why. My concerns around the Wests ability to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat Russia has been raised. I have also discussed the challenges we are facing as NATO has been forced to reduce its level of ambitions and are stepping away from past commitments. The challenges the US and Europe defence industries are facing have also been flagged.

I have not least, repeatedly stressed, the “tsunami of ripple effects” and argued that they will foster unrest, riots, and potential the collapse of governments. In my report on 26 July, I argued that:

“President Biden, Chancellor Scholz, President Macron, Prime Minister Støre, Frederiksen, Rutte, Sánchez, Costa, Trudeau, and more, will likely be held responsible for the increasing costs of living and the lack of energy and food security, having failed to act resolutely when challenged. While Russia bears full responsibility for the war, NATO’s failure to intervene in Ukraine has enabled a Russian protracted war with escalating global consequences.

Having failed to avert the global consequences of the war, the West also risks losing its global economic, diplomatic and military influence. Europe is facing a recession. Just as importantly, the prime guarantor of international law is seen to be failing to defend its core values and principles. At a time when global democracy has reached a new low when more than a third of the world’s population lives under authoritarian rule and just 6.4% enjoy full democracy, Western courage and moral obligations are seen to falter.

The world is watching a nuclear power deterring what was seen as the greatest military alliance in history. It serves as a lesson for more to follow.

“Only the lost is forever owned”. The West – the USA, NATO and the EU – is in principle faced with a similar “now-or-never” moment as Russia. We either succeed in Ukraine or accept losing global influence. If we are unable to stop a war in our own “backyard” and its consequential “tsunami of ripple effects” NATO will no longer be seen as a global military power. I fear that the potential consequences – unrest, riots, and the possible collapse of governments – might help accelerate our demise.”

We have since seen the rise of right-wing political forces. Marine Le Pen was competing for the post of president of France while exploiting the protest potential of the population as a consequence of the rising costs of living. The Sweden Democrats – a far-right political party – recently did their best election ever. The far-right “Brothers of Italy party” claimed victory in Italy’s election a month ago. In Norway, the political parties in the government are presently facing the worst election support in years.

This happens in the face of a Russian energy and economic war that might potentially increase in scope and severity as winter approaches. The political landscape is slowly evolving as Europe is facing recession and the energy crisis chips away at Europe’s industrial might.

Amazingly, all of this can be effectively countered by resolve, courage and humanitarian intervention in Ukraine.

The political leaders should find the determination Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi so eloquently framed following Russian mass missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Monday:

“We are waging a war against a country whose size is 28 times larger than ours, whose population is 4 times larger than ours, and whose military capabilities are many times greater than ours. We are waging a war by land, air, sea, cyberspace, etc.

We have been at war not for 8 months, but for 8 years and 8 months. All this testifies to our resilience, courage to defend what is ours, and the will to win.

Would other countries withstand such pressure? Just today, the enemy used 55 Kh-101 cruise missiles and one Kh-59 guided air missile, 22 anti-aircraft missiles for S-300 surface-to-air missile systems (SA-10 Grumble), 4 Shahed-136 UAVs and one Lancet-3 UAV on civilian targets in Ukraine. I don’t know about others, but we are holding on, regrouping, building up reserves, strengthening the defence, and gradually liberating our homeland.

Victory does not come easy to us. But it will definitely be ours.”

NATO and Ukraine have a population 7 times bigger than the aggressor. Its collective defence budget is 22 times bigger than Russia. The industrial base of the USA and the EU are many times bigger. Western weapons, sensors and intelligence have proven itself superior on the battlefield. The professionality of its Armed Forces is by far higher than what the Russian Armed Forces have demonstrated fighting the Ukraine.

If we only find inspiration from Ukrainian bravery, resilience and resolve, we will find the moral strength to do what is needed in Ukraine: Humanitarian intervention to change the military balance in favour of democracy, universal rights and international law.

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