War in Ukraine, Day 13: Mariupol is encircled, Russian General killed

Morning report day 13 – March 8

The report is based on media reports, expert analyses and official information posted online.

BTG: Battalion Tactical Group, approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, typically equipped with roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.

Situation

According to information from the General Staff of Ukraine as of Operational information on 06.00, 07.03.2022 and [midnight]:

Black Sea

According to Black Sea News, as of 00:00 (Kyiv time) on 7 March 2022, there are 13 Russian warships and 5 support vessels of the four fleets of the Russian Federation in the Mediterranean Sea. Türkiye has told Russia not to send the ships through the Bosporus strait. Earlier, Reuters reported that at least four Russian ships – two destroyers, a frigate, and a reconnaissance vessel – were waiting for Türkiye’s decision to move from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.

Since the beginning of 2022, the Russian Federation has relocated 20 warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, including 14 ships of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as 6 (3 each) from the Northern and Baltic Fleets.

Wilhelmsen Ships Service (WSS) has introduced a new Ukraine-Russia Port Situation Map on the Ships Agency section of its website. Color coding on the map immediately identifies which locations do not allow for port calls (red), those which allow for port calls with conditions/restrictions (dark blue), and those which are open as usual (light blue). Users are able to click on each port or country on the map to view the latest port restrictions and updates. The map is being updated up to two times per day, informs WSS, with a last updated timestamp to be found in the map’s legend information box.

Repressive actions of the occupiers

The “Financial Times” with reference to European intelligence services and officials reports that Russian authorities have instructed the FSB to prepare punitive operations in the captured Ukrainian cities to break the resistance of the population, UACrisis reports. According to representatives of European intelligence, the Russian FSB was instructed to maintain political order in the captured cities:

“Russian officials are considering aggressive measures to quell possible protests and resistance, including violent crowd control, repressive detentions of protest organizers, and possibly public executions to deter Ukrainian protesters.”

Launch of national roaming

Monday, the mobile operators Kyivstar, Vodafone Ukraine and lifecell together with the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, the State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, the National Commission for State Regulation in the Fields of Electronic Communications, Radio Frequency Spectrum and Provision of Postal Services together with the Ukrainian Association of Telecom Operators “Telas” announce the launch of national roaming in Ukraine.

“This means that subscribers can switch to the network of other operators if it is not possible to use the signal of their mobile operator,” Interfax reports. This will enable Ukrainians to remain connected.

As of 08.03.2022 morning, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the enemy of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

• personnel – more than 12.000 people (+1000),
• tanks – 303 units (+13),
• armoured combat vehicles – 1036 units (+37),
• artillery systems – 120 (+3),
• multiple rocket launchers – 56 (+6),
• air defence means – 27 (+4),
• aircraft – 48 (+2),
• helicopters – 80 (+12);
• automotive technology – 474 (+20),
• light speedboats – 2 units (no change),
• fuel and lubricant tanks – 60 (no change),
• UAV operational and tactical level – 7 (no change).

Humanitarian

Ms. Russell from UNICEF reported that the past eight years of conflict had already inflicted profound and lasting harm on the 7.5 million children in Ukraine, and threats have only grown with the current crisis. Since the fighting began, at least 27 boys and girls have been killed, and 42 have been injured.  UNICEF expects child casualty numbers, as well as displacement, to increase.  Half of the refugees are children. Meanwhile, homes, schools, orphanages, and hospitals have all come under attack, while water and sanitation facilities, and other civilian infrastructure, have been hit, affecting millions. “What is happening to children in Ukraine is a moral outrage,” said Ms. Russell.

Alarmed by spreading violence in Ukraine, targeted attacks on civilians, ineffective humanitarian corridors and spiralling risks, briefers and delegates alike called for decisive action to end the conflict, as the Security Council held its seventh meeting in two weeks related to the unfolding situation. “Simply put, millions of lives have been shattered,” said Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.

Indeed, the reach of humanitarian efforts can only go so far without the committed cooperation of Ukraine and the Russian Federation to ensure civilian protection and the maintenance of safe corridors for people wanting to escape the violence and those delivering critical aid.  Some civilians are unable to escape at a time when 1.7 million have already fled the country since the conflict began on 24 February, while those who remain are facing cuts of essential services.  Voicing an extra sense of dread over the impact the conflict will have on the wider world, he expressed deep worry about the consequences on vulnerable people living half a world away, with food prices spiking and supplies uncertain.

The Polish government passed a draft bill to create an 8 billion zloty ($1.75 billion) fund to help war refugees from Ukraine, Reuters reports. More than 1 million have crossed the border into Poland. Many thousands have been hosted across the country, but the aid effort has been predominantly shouldered by non-governmental organizations, volunteers, and municipalities.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500829973942317068

According to Ukrainska Pravda the situation in the regions are as follows:

• Kyiv Oblast. Fights in Irpin. Shelling in Makarov, Gostomel district. The movement of enemy vehicles in the north of Brovary district. Constant alarm of air strikes on Vasilkov, Bila Tserkva, Gostomel, Uzin. The region is preparing for evacuation.
• Kirovohrad region. The area is quiet.
• Volyn. The night was calm.
• Kherson. At two o’clock in the morning, powerful explosions were heard. The consequences are being clarified.
• Zhytomyr Oblast. The night was calm. In the evening – an air raid. Strike at two oil depots and an industrial zone.
• Zaporizhzhia region. Situation in the region: the enemy is preparing to attack Zaporizhzhia, regrouping troops.

In the occupied settlements of Polohy, Vasyliva, Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Energodar, the situation is controlled by community leaders. At the same time, the enemy is trying to establish a police regime through overt terror aimed at civilians.

• Rivne Oblast. The night was quiet.
• Vinnychyna. Night passed peacefully.
• Khmelnytsky Oblast. Attempts to fire on Starokostiantyniv. The attack was repulsed..
• Ternopil. The night was calm.
• Cherkasy. The night passed without worries in the region.
• Lviv region. The night was quiet.
• Chernihiv Oblast. Several air alarms at night. Defensive battles near Chernihiv, in the oblast.
• Sumy. Aviation raid on residential areas of the city, in the private sector. More than 20 dead and wounded, including children.
• Sumy Oblast – also air strikes on villages, on usual houses. The number of victims is being clarified.
• Okhtyrka – night air raid, bombed residential neighborhoods, private sector, grocery stores. They hit the already broken CHP plant again. City 4th day without heat completely. The number of victims is being clarified, the SES is dismantling the blockages.
• Poltava Oblast. In the evening – air alarms in Lubny and Poltava. At night – quiet.
• Chernivtsi. There was an air alarm in Chernivtsi in the evening. The night passed quietly.
• Ivano-Frankivsk. The night passed calmly.
• Luhansk. Shelling of Popasna , Rubizhne and Sievierodonetsk. In Popasna, 2 people were killed in a psychoneurological dispensary. In Rubizhne – 3 wounded civilians. There is no gas supply, partly electricity and water.
• Donetsk. Mangush, the last town before Mariupol – under Russian control. On March 8, a connection with Mariupol briefly broke through. The situation in the city is difficult. They are very much looking forward to humanitarian aid. Volnovakha has already been destroyed. The evacuation from there will continue on March 8. In the area of ​​Avdiivka shelling. The battle began in the area of ​​Marinka in the morning
• Odesa. The night was calm.
• Mykolaiv Oblast. Yesterday repulsed from the city from occupiers. Explosions were heard at night. Everything was quiet in the area at night.
• Dnipro. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast the night passed without worries.
• Kharkiv. Kharkiv is relatively calm at night. Fighting took place in the region in the Izium and Dergachiv directions.
• Zakarpattia. The night was calm.

Legal

The United States is collecting evidence of possible war crimes, human rights abuses and violations of international law by Russia during its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, a National Security Council spokesperson told NBC News on Monday.

The International Criminal Court has now launched an investigation into actions in Ukraine at the request of 39 countries. This is an important step in the global condemnation of the Russian invasion, The Conversation report. Individual states, the European Union and the African Union have been lining up to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin. [ ] Some experts have highlighted the difficulties of using international law to condemn Russia, and the investigation will examine the actions of all parties involved in the conflict. But the ICC does have the ability to charge Putin with war crimes if it finds evidence he has committed them. However, it is extremely difficult to prove intent to commit war crimes. So difficult, that only six people have been convicted by the ICC and served sentences.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine:

• Thus, in Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts, in the territories temporarily occupied by the Russian occupiers there are the facts of robberies, acts of violence against local residents, seizure of civilian housing, use of agricultural hangars for parking military equipment, setting up firing positions in the area of civil infrastructure facilities are widely recorded.
• In the territories which are temporarily occupied by the enemy in Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts, after February 24, 2022, the occupiers use units of psychological operations to influence the local population. According to the available information, up to 10 tactical groups of psychological operations with tasks related to conducting propaganda work with the local population have been created.
• The occupiers are intimidating the population of the northern part of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation is setting up task forces there to work with the population, in particular, to identify resistance.

Environmental

The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, has warned the conflict in Ukraine could send global food prices soaring, with a catastrophic impact on the world’s poorest. Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of basic foodstuffs, and the war has already hit crop production, driving up prices

Russia and Ukraine, once dubbed “the breadbasket of Europe”, export about a quarter of the world’s wheat and half of its sunflower products, like seeds and oil. Ukraine also sells a lot of corn globally. Analysts have warned that war could impact the production of grains and even double global wheat prices.

Mr. Beasley told BBC World Service’s Business Daily program that the number of people facing potential starvation worldwide had already risen from 80 million to 276 million in four years prior to Russia’s invasion, due to what he calls a “perfect storm” of conflict, climate change and coronavirus. He said certain countries could be particularly affected by the current crisis, due to the high proportion of grains they currently import from the Black Sea region.”

Support

UK MPs are set to pass a new law aimed at toughening sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, EuroNews report. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the Economic Crime Bill will let British authorities root out money linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Hungary allows NATO troops to be deployed in western Hungary and weapons shipments to cross its territory to other NATO member states, according to a decree signed by Prime Minister Viktor Orban,” Reuters reports. “The decree, however, says Hungary does not allow lethal weapons shipments across its territory to Ukraine.”

This marks a continuation of Hungary’s policy of undermining Ukraine. In May 2014, right after the annexation of Crimea, Orbán demanded autonomy for Hungarians in Transcarpathia (a territory of Ukraine that belonged to the Austro-Hungarian monarchy until the end of the first World War). It has been blocking ministerial-level political meetings between NATO and Ukraine, and its efforts to join the transatlantic community. Until the Russian attack on February 24, Prime Minister Orbán has been a vocal critic of sanctions and is one of Putin’s strongest allies within the EU.

New developments

According to the Centre for Defence Strategies:

• Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Commons today via video link and is expected to plead for more arms and a no-fly zone over Ukraine to be enforced by NATO.
• The Prime Minister of India addressed the President of the Russian Federation, calling for direct negotiations with the President of Ukraine. India continues to maintain a balance between Moscow and Washington despite the active efforts of the Biden Administration to get New Delhi involved in imposing sanctions against the Russian Federation.
• United we stand, divided we fall. According to Visegrad Post,
  

  “Brussels and Paris, instead of coming to the aid of the frontline countries and urgently releasing funds for them, they are still busy imposing financial sanctions on Poland and Hungary. On 3 and 4 March, the EU-27 European Affairs ministers had a meeting in Arles, France under the French presidency of the EU Council to discuss, according to the program disclosed on 2 March and posted online by Polish MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, the effectiveness of the existing tools for enforcing the “rule of law”. Article 7 sanction procedures against Poland and Hungary, which France would very much like to reactivate, were also on the agenda.”

• OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) has completed its evacuation of international mission members from the Mission’s area of operations. The SMM has suspended its reporting activities. Its mandate expires 31 March 2022. Since a mandate extension requires the consent of all OSCE member states, including Russia, a suspension of the mission is a likely outcome.

As previously stated, the evacuation of SMM means that the international community loses both situational awareness on the ground and an important resource to counter the false narratives that the Kremlin uses to justify its aggressions, hide its atrocities and blame Ukraine.

Assessments

The Institute for the Study of War assessment as of Monday 22:00 (Kyiv time):

In the article “Western weakness is enabling Russian war crimes in Ukraine,” Bohdan Klid, the director of Research at the University of Alberta’s Holodomor Research and Education Consortium (Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies), wrote that

“In light of [ ] setbacks, Russia has switched to terror tactics and is increasingly focusing on missile strikes, aerial bombing, and the indiscriminate shelling of civilian targets. Civilian casualties are now mounting at an alarming rate, with major cities including Kharkiv and Mariupol in ruins.”

 

“So far, the Western response to Putin’s invasion has proved insufficient to restrain Russia. Sanctions imposed since the beginning of the war have been unexpectedly severe, but they have stopped some way short of the most extreme options available. The UK has been reluctant to match its rhetoric with tough steps against Russian oligarchs, for example, while Germany has blocked efforts to impose potentially game-changing sanctions on Russian energy exports.

 

These half-measures have sent a dangerous message to the Kremlin that the West remains unwilling to engage in full-scale economic warfare. The results of this folly can be seen in the escalating bombardment of Ukraine’s cities.

 

Ukraine has long called on the West to engage with Russia from a position of strength, while also warning of the threat to international security posed by the Putin regime. Alarm bells first rang in 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia. It is now painfully clear that the weak Western response to that brief war was a grave mistake.

 

In spring 2014, the democratic world was equally feckless in its reaction to the Russian seizure of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine. Western leaders initially subjected Moscow to relatively modest economic sanctions and only agreed to tighten restrictions when Russia shot down a passenger airliner over the east Ukrainian combat zone in July 2014.

 

While European leaders condemned Putin’s 2014 attack on Ukraine, they did not hesitate to forge stronger economic ties with Russia. This hypocritical stance was epitomized by Germany’s decision to partner with Russia on the construction of a major new gas pipeline, which was announced in 2015 despite Russia’s refusal to end the occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. German politicians would continue to defend their collaboration with the Kremlin until Putin’s recent invasion finally forced Berlin to cancel the pipeline.

 

This weakness is all the more inexcusable as Putin has never made any secret of his intention to subjugate Ukraine.”

The deliberate bombardment of cities and targeting of civilians is a war crime. The last Nuremberg prosecutor still alive, Benjamin Ferencz, recently called for Russia to be held accountable.

“The crimes now being committed against Ukraine by Russia are a disgrace to human society. Those responsible should be held accountable for aggression, crimes against humanity and plain murder,” Ferencz stated in a social media post. “The sooner they start dragging the criminals before a court, the happier we will be. When will the world’s democracies finally demonstrate their determination to make Russia answer for its crimes?”

No further comments are needed. When will the world’s democracies finally demonstrate their determination?