InformNapalm has analyzed the Russian “Kavkaz-2016” exercise and found among others that a Russian attack group is in place in the southern military district, capable of short-term offensive operations in the south-western direction, including air support, a layered air defense system and landing of personnel and equipment in several areas. In regard to the latter, there indeed has been a certain “obsession” with water landings and amphibious assault exercises (which for example can be seen here for the last months).
Taking into account Russia exercising offensive scenarios and the existence of an attack group being ready to strike in the south-western direction, this map additionally shows the fatal position of tiny Georgia, run by a pro-Russian parliamentary majority and prime minister – formerly in charge of the foreign office – practically surrendered by Russian military and dependent units. Those forces stage regular “exercises” on the occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and have created the phenomenon of the “moving border”.
Moreover, Russia’s Head of General Staff Gerasimov just a few days ago noted that Russia would be able to control the Black Sea, the statement being repeated during his visit to Türkiye this week.
Such statements are of very relevance for the security environment of all Black Sea countries, especially those not being in NATO. Moldova in this regard remains far more vulnerable than Ukraine, the latter disposing of military resources and experience that also a country such as Russia has to take seriously.
Russia has succeeded in the creation of an overall unstable environment around its “exclave” Transnistria. Still, the establishment of another terrorist entity in the region, the “Bessarabian People’s Republic” including the Ukrainian city of Odesa – with planned “support” from Transnistria, failed in 2015, thwarted by Ukrainian security structures and volunteers.
Moldova for its part has a history of facing similar Russian hybrid war methods as Ukraine. A popular method has been of getting involved in corruption scandals through various methods in order to weaken the country. The most recent example is the case of former pro-European Prime Minister Filat who was sentenced for corruption. The current prime minister has been more willing to cooperate with Russia, and agreed to renew the discussion for a settlement on Transnistria (the issue of a “special status” coming up), met Vice Prime Minister Rogozin in July, and has offered the perspective of deepening cooperation with Russia, after Russian tanks from Transnistria crossed the Dniester into the territory of Moldova during “anti-terrorist” exercises.
Of the countries mentioned Ukraine remains the only country with a clear western orientation, significant human resources, minimal cooperation with Russia and the will to follow this path despite serious internal problems. Russia has probably realized that the currently occupied Ukrainian territory will not generate sufficient leverage in order to influence the rest of the country to Russia’s advantage.
Russia, however, is determined to invest significant resources into the restoration of its former sphere of influence. Therefore growing Russian military capabilities in the Black Sea, the Russian foothold of Transnistria and a further instrumentalization of Moldova – in whatever manner – could be used as leverage both over Ukraine to the east and NATO members Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
Related:
- Russia's plans to create new "republics" in southwestern Ukraine
- Russian propaganda pushes fake "Republic of Budjak"
- Is Moldova's apparent defeat Kremlin's blueprint for Ukraine?
- NATO won't do more than express concern, if Putin attacks another former Soviet republic, Illarionov says
- "Europe's fatigue from Ukraine is the aggressor's greatest ally" -- appeal of European intellectuals
- Ukraine's unrequited passion for Europe
