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Ukraine’s east conditions getting more conducive for higher pace of operations as winter sets in – ISW

In its December 3 Russian offensive campaign assessment, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that conditions in Ukraine’s east “are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.”

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 3 that the ground has frozen along the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will likely increase the pace of their counteroffensive operations in the area as a result.

Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also stated on December 2 that weather is finally changing on the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their counter-offensive maneuver operations as mud in the area fully freezes.

ISW has previously assessed that the overall pace of operations is likely to increase in the coming weeks as consistent cold weather allows the ground to freeze throughout the theater, especially in eastern Ukraine where operations on both sides have been bogged down by heavy mud.

Neither Russians nor Ukrainians will likely suspend offensive operations in one of the most optimal times of year for mechanized maneuver warfare in this region, ISW notes.


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