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Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 16, 2014

Article by: Dmitry Tymchuk
Translated by: Voices of Ukraine
Edited by: Voices of Ukraine

Brothers and sisters!

Here’s the Summary for September 16, 2014 (for previous summary, please see Summary for September 15, 2014).

The bad news:

1. The DNR and LNR [Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics] terrorist organizations announced the creation of the ‘united armed forces of novorossiya’ with a single ‘commander-in-chief.’

Of course, they can create even intergalactic forces of space marines, as the name ‘united armed forces’ definitely sounds too luxurious for this gathering of drug addicts and criminals. This is not the point. The point is that Russian soldiers in Donbas have obviously grown weary of ending up under the mortar fire of drunken mercenaries and dying from ‘friendly fire,’ therefore they have been pressuring their ‘associates’ through Moscow for quite a long time, so that the latter create single bodies of government over their gangs. The last straw was the mercenaries’ recent artillery attack on the Russian DRG [sabotage-intelligence group] near Debaltseve.

The creation of a single command for insurgents solves the issue of some sort of cooperation among the Russian-terrorist army. For us it is very bad, as in this case the effectiveness of the enemy is greatly increased.

True, it’s definitely uncertain whether the Donbas big daddies and the small criminal krill will accept the rules of the game in action, not words. Everyone there fancies themselves a prince and Clausewitz (if they are familiar with this character, which is doubtful in general).

2. Despite the agreements Russia signed with the EU and Ukraine on September 12, Russia intends to impose customs taxes on Ukrainian goods.

The Russian Ministry for Economic Development claimed the Russian government was to approve the order regarding customs taxes for Ukraine, and only then postpone its application, should Kyiv and Brussels keep their promise to defer the implementation of the free-trade zone section of the Association Agreement.

Well then, yet one more reason to become more convinced that we should make every possible effort for Russia, in terms of economic cooperation, to end up further away from us than Zimbabwe. Export and import dependence on Moscow can only be acceptable in terms of bulk-buying balalaikas and matryoshkas. Everything else is a crime against Ukraine’s economic security.

The good news:

1. The Verkhovna Rada voted for the resonant bills on the special status of some areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts [regions] and for amnesty to the insurgents.

Local elections in the currently occupied districts are to be held on December 7, 2014, a special procedure for local self-government is introduced herein for three years, guarantees are given for the free usage of Russian and other languages, the state will finance the support of the socioeconomical development of these districts. People’s militia units will be set up here, by decision of local councils. The amnesty law prescribes exemption from liability to ‘members of armed formations’ and those who opposed the antiterrorist operation.

On one hand, these laws strongly smack of just handing over Donbas. On the other hand, it is an absolutely necessary step. It’s worth looking truth in the eye: we could have finished what we started and crushed the mercenaries into fine powder (which was where everything was headed), had Putin not sent hordes of his regular troops to Donbas. Ukraine turned out to be incapable of resisting this infestation. Of course, we can carry out general mobilization, put hundreds of thousands of our citizens at gunpoint, and flood Donbas with blood – but this is hardly the best option.

Personally, I thought and still think that the Donbas problem cannot be solved by peaceful means (theoretically, we can give Donbas ‘freedom,’ and then gradually and quietly tighten the bolts, but Russia will definitely not allow for this to happen). We need a different army for victory, which we have yet to create, but the good strong foundation of which has been laid during the current military action. Which is why the special status law is an ellipsis, but not the point (although, there are many questions in this regard – for example, about the financing of these territories). The most important thing is not to forget about this topic, citing economic hardship and other circumstances.

What is no less important is whether Kyiv’s gift will satisfy Moscow and the militants. This is another question…

In any case, while there are debates going on, it is necessary to swiftly create a fortified line of defense along the border of the occupied territories. It will not hurt in any case.

2. The Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] and the EU Parliament simultaneously ratified the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement.

Despite all the reservations – it is a strategic victory for Ukraine. This is where Maidan began. For us, the path towards this agreement became not only the fight between ‘good versus evil’ within Ukraine – the forces of light against Yanukovych’s dictatorship, but also with an external aggressor. None of the countries of the EU and their partners have given so much effort (and the lives of the best of their sons) for their choice and for a place within the European family.

But, we all understand perfectly well that the Agreement – is still far from [the membership of] Ukraine in Europe. The revolution within our minds is far from over. Separate thanks go to Putin – with his aggression he pushed many of our compatriots towards the EU much more powerfully than all the talk of democracy and European values put together.

read more

Dmitry Tymchuk, Head of the Center for Military and Political Research, Coordinator of the Information Resistance group
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Translated by: Voices of Ukraine
Edited by: Voices of Ukraine
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February 12: ”Normandy Four” negotiations concluded in Minsk with a disappointing result for Ukraine

February 12 – "Normandy Four" negotiations concluded in Minsk with a disappointing result for Ukraine. Putin did not give in on a single point – there will be no withdrawal of Russian troops (they are, of course, nowhere close to Ukraine), no immediate resumption of control over the border, no reinstatement of sovereignty over occupied Crimea or Donbas. There are, however, the obligations on behalf of Ukraine to service social needs of separatists, legalize their armed gangs and hold fake elections under their watchful eye. The situation looks a lot like the surrender of Sudetenland (Czechoslovakia) to Hitler.

February 12 – Total financial assistance to Ukraine from the IMF and other organizations could amount to 40 billion dollars over 4 years, – said IMF's Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

February 12 – Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations has announced the preparations for the 14th so-called humanitarian aid convoy destined for Donbas – more weapons will be transported, no doubt.

February 12 – Russia has transferred another lot of military equipment and artillery to the territory of Ukraine, controlled by militants – approximately 50 tanks, 40 "Grad", "Uragan" and "Smerch" multiple rocket launch systems and 40 armored vehicles crossed Russian-Ukrainian border at border crossing point Izvaryne, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 12 – The transfer of the amphibious assault ship "Vladivostok" (Mistral-class) to Russia could begin as early as next week.

February 12 – EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Federica Mogherini does not expect sanctions against Russia to be discussed during the summit of EU member-states leaders to be held on Thursday.

February 12 – Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Lamberto Zannier hassaid that at present it is impossible to determine whether the militants in Donbas are also soldiers of the regular Russian army. OSCE has completely exhausted itself as a security-oriented organization.

February 12 – Agreements reached in Minsk during the meeting of the leaders of the countries of the "Normandy quartet" are absolutely weak. This was stated by the President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybaskaite, to journalists in Brussels before the EU Summit. "The fundamental part of the resolution is the control of the borders. It was not agreed upon and not resolved," she noted. "This means that the border is open for crossing by whatever soldiers and whatever artillery," remarked Grybaskaite. "This means that the resolution is totally weak," emphasized the President of Lithuania. She is also not very optimistic about the agreements on the cease-fire.

"Five months ago we already had one agreement about a cease-fire which was not implemented. Let's see what happens with this one," underlined Grybaskaite. "We will observe in the next few days how at least these partial agreements will be implemented," she added.

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I guess with hindsight, a deal was always going to be done. Merkel was not going to get on a flight to Minsk, after Kyiv, Moscow, and Berlin, and not get something. And Putin needed to try and rebuild some bridges with Merkel, after seemingly upsetting her at Brisbane. Merkel is probably the honest broker in all this. She really feels for the Ukrainian position, but understands the real threat from Russia – she reads Putin better than any other Western leader, and cannot be bought. But it is Bismark-style real politik for Merkel, and she was desperate to stop the fighting – almost at any cost, which is entirely understandable. Hollande will likely get his aircraft carriers delivered, and sees all this as offering the hope of ressurection in terms of his presidency at home – a global leader, strutting the international stage and making Cameron, et al look like poodles, or rather a bulldog with no teeth. Putin gets his aircraft carriers, which will no doubt have a nice shiny berth now awaiting in Sebastopol. Putin also fended off near term threats of sanctions from the West, and can sell himself to allies in Europe (there are many) as a peacemaker – again heading off further sanctions threats. He has also not agreed to very much, as I don't think his signature is on the document, so if it fails (and it likely will) he can blame others. He has also headed off the threat of the US arming Ukraine – and therein he is in cahoots with Obama himself, who will see this deal as being useful in fending off calls from the DC consensus (including within his own administration) now to arm Ukraine – and can return to his own "splendid isolation" or "strategic patience" as it is now called stateside. That's a nice term for doing as little as possible. Poroshenko gets his IMF programme, and can try and roll out reforms attached to this to try and assure the supporters of Maydan that this team is really the Real Deal in terms of the reforms they so desire. Note the IMF press release was timed for 10am, just as news of the Minsk deal broke – so my sense is that someone was telling the Ukrainians that an IMF deal was contingent on a Minsk ceasefire deal. No ceasefire – no IMF deal. And the IMF gets to roll out its new programme, which it has been working on for months. Poroshenko probably also thinks that the ceasefire will buy time for Ukraine to regroup, rearm against the clear and present danger of further Russian intervention. But will it all stick/last? I just do not think so, as I still fail to see from this deal what is different to Minsk I in terms of delivery on Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine. Minsk I clearly did not deliver for Russia, hence that ceasefire did not last long, so let's see what is really different this time around. The issues of real autonomy/federalism, and border control don't appear to be properly addressed in this document. Constitutional reform towards the Russian agenda will be impossible for Poroshenko to deliver. And finally and fundamentally why I do not think that the status quo is sustainable – one year ago Russia felt the need to annex Crimea, and intervene in eastern Ukraine. But one year ago Ukraine was no threat to Russia as a) it was non aligned; b) popular support for Nato membership was low single digits, and there was little support in parliament or amongst political elites to drive Ukraine NATO membership. C) the west really did not want Ukraine in NATO as they saw this as a red rag to the Russian bull, and as events have proved could not defend Ukraine under NATO's TOR; c) the Ukrainian military had limited fighting capability as was proven in the early days of the conflict, but subsequently changed; d) the govt in Kyiv was weak and disarray and the Ukrainian economy on the brink of collapse; e) and as events have proven Russia had de facto control of Crimea via the stationing of 26,000 troops and the long term BSF agreement. And f) and finally Ukrainians were not anti-russian or even particularly anti-Putin. If Moscow was not a real threat a year ago, but Moscow felt compelled to intervene, look at the risk from a Russian perspective now from Ukraine – a) Ukraine is no longer non aligned. B) it now wants to join NATO and opinion polls now show majority support for this. C) Ukraine is rebuilding military capability and the military doctrine is now against the threat from Russia; d) Ukraine has a reform admin in Kyiv, which has a real chance of succeeding now with imf support. It can offer a rival and successful model of development to Putin's power vertical and sovereign democracy. E) Opinion polls show strong ukrainian opposition/distaste for the Putin regime. So, net-net the above still suggests the risk of further future Russian intervention in Ukraine.

P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.

March 19: A year after Annexation of Crimea

March 19 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has issued a warning about the militants preparing provocations for Friday in order to be able to resume hostilities.

March 19 – Broadcast of Ukrainian TV channels has resumed at the occupied territories (namely "Channel 5", Espresso TV and Radio 24 is now broadcasting in Donetsk), – stated the Minister of Information Policy Yuriy Steys at a briefing. According to Stets, Poland has provided free transmitters, which, in addition to supporting the broadcast of Ukrainian channels, can also suppress frequencies used by the separatists.

March 19 – Missile systems "Iskander", which Russia has deployed to Kaliningrad, are able to get to reach European capitals, even Berlin, – said Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė in Brussels (reports Delfi.lt).

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P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.