Copyright © 2021 Euromaidanpress.com

The work of Euromaidan Press is supported by the International Renaissance Foundation

When referencing our materials, please include an active hyperlink to the Euromaidan Press material and a maximum 500-character extract of the story. To reprint anything longer, written permission must be acquired from [email protected].

Privacy and Cookie Policies.

Both Russia and Ukraine ready for new expansion of war, Felgenhauer says

Hundreds of Russian tanks assembled 18km from the Ukrainian border as of early December 2018 (Image: Google Earth via defense-blog.com)
Hundreds of Russian tanks assembled 18km from the Ukrainian border as of early December 2018 (Image: Google Earth via defense-blog.com)
Edited by: A. N.

If Moscow wants to expand its aggression in Ukraine, it will easily find a “formal” justification for this because both Russia and Ukraine are prepared for “an escalation of military action” between them, according to independent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer.

He made his comments to Ukraine’s Gordon news agency in response to those of Kurt Volker, the US special representative on Ukraine, who said that Russia “needed an occasion for aggression.”

Whether there will be “a winter war” or not remains to be seen, Felgenhauer says; but “the possibility exists” given the concentration of forces on both sides. “Thus, the escalation of the conflict is not excluded. But if this doesn’t happen before the end of January, it means that there will not be a winter campaign.”

A Russian military base 18km from the Ukrainian border, one of the locations of the assembled tank force. (Image: Google Earth via defense-blog.com)
A Russian military base 18km from the Ukrainian border, one of the locations of the assembled tank force. (Image: Google Earth via defense-blog.com)

Given the poor state of roads in the Donbas, the best times for launching an attack are either in the summer when drought makes the roads passable or in the winter when freezing weather does the same thing, the military analyst says. He adds that a Russian attack via the Sea of Azov is improbable given that its shallow waters create difficulties for the Russian fleet.

If Russia wants to start a new wave of aggression, Felgenhauer says, it will not be difficult for it to find an occasion. That raises tensions on both sides, especially given that it isn’t clear whether Moscow will use regular forces or hybrid ones as it has in the course of earlier moves against Ukraine.

What makes things especially worrisome, the military analyst says, is that Russian officials, like foreign ministry spokesperson Mariya Zakharova have been suggesting that Kyiv is preparation “provocations in the Donbas,” exactly the kind of thing Moscow accuses others of doing before it does so itself.

Further Reading:

Edited by: A. N.
You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!
Total
0
Shares
Related Posts