RISI article suggests new Russian attacks in Ukraine likely in near future, Kirillova says

Russian military troops (Image: nr2.com.ua)

Image: nr2.com.ua 

2015/12/09 • Analysis & Opinion, Military analysis, War in the Donbas

At the end of November, an article by Andrey Vadzhra for the influential Russian Institute for Strategic Investigations (RISI) repeated many of the themes that have become commonplace in Russian commentaries about Ukraine, but it also contained a serious warning: “a new phase of war” is now “inevitable.”

Vadzhra’s article, Kseniya Kirillova argues, confirms the views of Ukrainian security analyst Valentin Badrak; but because of its source – RISI was a major lobbyist for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the new Russian article gives them new weight.

ussrAs has become characteristic of Russian commentaries and propaganda, Kirillova says, Vadzhra accuses Ukraine of planning to do what in fact Russia has done or will do itself. And thus, his argument that Kyiv has no way out by to “begin a new stage of the war” possibly by staging a provocation suggests that that is exactly what Moscow will be doing.

Further, Vadzhra writes that “it is not excluded that in the near term on the territory of Ukraine will be carried out some kind of large-scale provocation to give the Ukrainian leadership the occasion to begin a major military attack on the Donbas.” In “the mirror image tactic” of Russian propaganda, that suggests Moscow, not Kyiv, is likely planning to do exactly that.

Given that large numbers of people in Ukraine, Russia and the West are assuming that Moscow will not attack in Ukraine either because of Russia’s domestic difficulties or because of Vladimir Putin’s involvement in Syria, Kirillova suggests, one cannot afford to ignore warnings like this one that at least some in the Russian capital are planning to do precisely that.

Edited by: A. N.

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  • Petrolkoks

    Of course.
    Putin is going mad (more so), because he knows his time is running out.

  • Greg

    Putin is far beyond being mad, he is evil!! He is pursuing a state that Stalin and Hitler would love. These are his hero’s!!!! Stalin is being dusted off and presented as a hero to Russia. People talk about the Soviet Empire, but remember this empire was driven from Moscow and the Kremlin. Putin is desperately working to rebuild an Empire, he wants to be worshiped. He may call others Nazi’s and fascists, but it is Putin who is the Nazi perusing a fascist goal. Russians have murdered far more that Hitler ever dreamed of!!!