Putin convinced that whatever he does, Obama won’t respond militarily, Borovoy says

Putin and Obama (Image: EPA)

 

2015/09/19 • Analysis & Opinion, Politics, Russia

Vladimir Putin is acting in Syria as he has in Ukraine on the basis of his conviction that no matter what Russia does, Barack Obama will not respond militarily and that as a result, Moscow has every incentive to raise the stakes in order to force negotiations and gain even more concessions from the West, according to Konstantin Borovoy.

Konstantin Borovoy (Image: Apostrophe.com.ua)

Konstantin Borovoy (Image: Apostrophe)

Arguing that “a war between the US and Russia has begun” but that Putin believes he can win it without a direct military confrontation with the US, the head of the Western Choice Party says that the Kremlin leader has concluded “there is now no president in the US but instead a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.”

According to Borovoy, Putin has sent troops into Syria just as he has in Ukraine “not for the conduct of war but for its declaration, as a provocation and showing of the flag. Putin needs a casus belli but not a war” as such. And he believes that will work on the basis of his conclusion that the US is weak, something Russian intelligence agencies and lobbyists assure him is true.

The latest indication of what Putin is successfully trying to achieve, the Russian commentator continues, are the talks between the defense ministers of the US and Russia, a “pathetic” effort by the US to avoid having to acknowledge that Russia has entered the Syrian conflict against the US and the West.

“To conclude ‘agreements’ at the level of defense ministers with someone who does not observe internationally signed and ratified agreements shows naiveté,” he says, because Putin will violate this “at the first opportunity” and then blame the US for the violations. And he will sacrifice Russian lives to that end as he has in the past.

“Putin’s real goal is not war but the creation of such pre-war tension that he US will be forced to enter into broadscale negotiations. The current [US] president will do everything possible in this situation not to begin military actions” and thus “will agree to talks in any format” and will be ready “in advance” to make concessions to Putin.

Putin’s demands in this situation are obvious, Borovoy says. They are “Crimea is ours, Syria is ours, Iran is ours, end all sanctions, provide financial assistance to Russia and respect the interests of Russia in the world.” And the Kremlin leader wants to be able to make those at a meeting with Obama and other world leaders.

In this situation, the West doesn’t have a large number of options, the Russian commentator says. It can face a long period of Russian provocations and apparent pullbacks, but it will not do anything but lose slowly because Putin believes he can act with impunity and so will continue to do so.

That will be a black day for the West, but on the other hand, Borovoy says, it will “justify” Obama’s receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize.

Meanwhile, Putin will force Russians to tighten their belts, but he will succeed in convincing them that their problems have not been caused by him but by “the military provocateur Obama” and thus they will not only accept the situation but support Putin in his further aggression.

In reality, he continues, Obama has only “a single way out – supplying arms to Ukraine, and not just defensive ones but those that will allow Ukraine to attack. Russia’s armed forces in fact are not prepared for a real military conflict.” At present, however, Putin is certain that Obama won’t do that.

There remains “only one question: what in fact ought the American president to do in this situation?” Borovoy suggests two steps: “giving a military response to Putin in Syria and Ukraine, immediately, rapidly and very effectively,” and “taking up the problems of the c special services having freed them from the influence of the network of Putin’s agents.”

Unfortunately, the Russian commentator implies, there does not seem to be much chance of either.

Edited by: A. N.

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  • Dagwood Bumstead

    Obama will be gone in 16 months and his successor, whoever wins the election in November 2016, won’t be such a weakling. As things stand there is full bipartisan support in both Senate and House of Representatives for military aid to Kyiv and ONLY Obama is preventing Washington from supplying it.
    The dwarf shouldn’t count his chickens until they’re hatched. He did so in the Ukraine, counting on Kyiv caving in immediately. It didn’t. Al-Nusra and IS won’t cave in either and already Dwarfstan soldiers are refusing to go to Syria, just as they are refusing to go to the Donbas. They don’t want to play the leading roles in IS beheading videos- and why should they?

    • Vol Ya

      Russian soldiers being beheaded should make for good you tube videos. I wonder how the russian public will react to this. It is going to be tougher and tougher for putin to hide the truth from his own people.

      • Dagwood Bumstead

        It gets better and better- or worse, depending on your position. Those refusing to go to Syria are now being threatened with prosecution for treason:
        http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/09/20/russian_servicemen_refuse_to_go_to_syria_threatened_with_state_treason_626028

        Just the sort of thing to inspire confidence in your superiors’ integrity- NOT! The dwarf must be really desperate to stop the rot from spreading further in the Dwarfstan army. He already has problems with soldiers refusing to go to the Donbas and he can’t afford to withdraw from Syria, his only toehold in the Med. But if his soldiers refuse to cooperate en masse?????? He’d quickly become the laughing stock of the Middle East. Just how reliable are his troops anyway?

      • LES1

        KGB will dress as “ISIS” and behead Russian orphans [AKA – Russian soldiers] – and have it filmed to put on a good show for Putin’s “TV tribe cult”.

  • Brent

    Hey screwball, you still watch CNN?!?!?! How 1990’s of you……

    Want to make a bet long how until the first Russian soldier in Syria gets beheaded? I love seeing Russia’s terrorists now fighting ISIS terrorists. Let both sets of terrorists kill each other instead of innocent citizens like they have been so far…

    • Brent

      I don’t judge a news channel on their political slant, but on the relevance and truth to their stories. CNN is past it’s best before date and are too focused on reporting drivel and not real news. And don’t be foolish and think I watch FAUX News either. They are of the same level of lunacy as your buddies over at RT.

      Cable news networks are for people with short attention spans who like propaganda (like yourself) who have to sit down with a bowl of popcorn in their armchair and listen to some talking head on tv tell them how to think.

  • danram

    Mr. Borovoy is 100% correct. Barack Obama is a wimp and Putin knows it. But fortunately, in less than 400 days, Obama won’t be president any more.

  • Vol Ya

    There is only one thing putin understands. That is the use of force. So the West needs to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, sufficient to inflict significant damage and pain on russian forces in Donbas. Then maybe putin will come to his senses.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      The dwarf doesn’t care about losses any more than Stalin did- it won’t be HIS children who are dying or losing limbs, eyes etc. He is obsessed with gaining total control over Kyiv and whether he loses 100,000 dead or 1 million is immaterial to him, as long as he gets that control.
      Whether the people of Dwarfstan wil put up with such losses is another matter, however.