Analyst: Putin knows massive attack on Ukraine would be catastrophic



Analysis & Opinion, Russia, War in the Donbas

Andrey Piontkovsky, who in the past has warned that Vladimir Putin will continue to escalate his acts of aggression, now says that there is unlikely to be any massive Russian attack on Ukraine because “even Putin understands that such an adventure would be catastrophic for his personal power.”

Andrey Piontkovsky, Russian mathematician, political writer and analyst

Andrey Piontkovsky, Russian mathematician, political writer and analyst

Of course, the Russian analyst says, one cannot totally exclude Putin might do something others would see as self-destructive given that “even Angela Merkel has recognized Putin lives in a parallel reality — and who knows what a madman with unlimited power might do.”

Piontkovsky draws this conclusion on the basis of three ideas.

  • First, he says, “Putin does not completely control what is taking place in the Donbas.”
  • Second, “even he understands that such an adventure would be catastrophic for the regime as a whole and for his personal power,” given the losses it would entail.
  • And third, he points to an article by Fyodor Lukyanov in “The Moscow Times” last Sunday in English with the title, “Putin Wants Peaceful Coexistence with the West” as an indication Putin has less room for maneuver than many think and that he or those around him are looking for a way out. “The Russian elite, the so-called ruling class,” Piontkovsky says, has recognized that [a full-scale attack on Ukraine] would be too dangerous and too expensive.” And their feeling are well reflected in Lukyanov’s article, one that calls for a new round of peaceful coexistence “on condition” that Moscow retains Crimea and its position in the Donbas but doesn’t go further.

That doesn’t mean that Putin will not continue to cause trouble for Ukraine: he will do so as long as he is in office, the Russian commentator says. But it does mean that the risk that the Kremlin leader will launch the kind of major invasion many had expected is now relatively low.

Russian aggression: Devastated building in Lysychansk, Ukraine, 4 August 2014 (Image: Ліонкінг)

Russian aggression: Devastated building in Lysychansk, Donbas, Ukraine, 4 August 2014 (Image: Ліонкінг)

Edited by: A. N.

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  • Michel Cloarec

    It would be stupid to loose the little “better” he did for the country russia !

  • Murf

    So far his actions have been careful but his world view is delusional.

    • Andrew Chmilewsky

      Murf…. IF it was indeed “careful” — he wouldn’t have taken Crimea in the first place…. Much less without a SUPPLY MECHANISM. So how smart was that? :)

      • Murf

        I didn’t smart.
        His every decision has been stupid.
        No he is just careful to not push so hard as to provoke complete sanctions by the EU. Maintaining the fiction of non involvement, keeping his troops out of the fighting as much as possible. Not using it power.
        These are careful moves that a rash hot head would not have made.
        But considering you could probably cover Crimea in a a layer of platinum for what the overall cost has been for this whole business.
        Definitely not smart.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          I doubt whether the dwarf is interested in the cost of his actions. He is obsessed with bringing the Ukraine under his total control no matter what. He has nothing to fear from Merkel, who seems to want to prevent modern weapons from reaching the Ukrainians for some unknown reason. (Obama and Hollande are just as useless). Makes one wonder whether the dwarf has some info on Merkel that would ruin her political career if it became public knowledge in Germany.

          • LorCanada

            I was just wondering what would be the consequences if Israel decided to supply Ukraine with what it needs to really defend itself. I heard something about that recently, not sure from where.

        • Andrew Chmilewsky

          He’ll push, as hard as he can, and he has, because he knows he’s got OBAMA on his side…. and everyone is a pussy and greedy… and there are too many cooks in the Western kitchen…. so he’ll huff and puff…. and open his RUSKIE LOUD MOUTH and be a total @sshole…. with WESTERNERS…. Always worked before for them ya’ know…. Obama was a Marxist in his college “daze” …. still is…

          • Murf

            Don’t get me started on Obama.
            Bush II had balls.
            Clinton had people skills
            Bush Sr had diplomacy skills
            Reagan had charisma.
            Obama is a poser.

      • Murf

        That’s were the stupid comes in.
        Why he did it was stupid. How he went about it was careful. Compare the Crimea take over with the Czechoslovakia Hungarian and Afghanistan operations. Those were very Russian and ham fisted.

        • Andrew Chmilewsky

          They have ALWAYS been “ham fisted”… ALWAYS!!!

          Brutal, STUPID, and INCOMPETENT… ALWAYS!!!

          Ukes used to (see _Khrushchev Remembers_) regard them as INCOMPETENT… ALWAYS! Khrushchev (he was a mix of Russian and Jewish btw — not Ukie) refers to Ukes regarding Russian as “a hopeless Russniak”.

          Poroshenko, said btw, that 80% of Ukie security (SBU) were Ruskie agents in 2012.

          Even as the Soviet (Ruskie) Union was collapsing, they (Ruskie) were “doing their Ruskie thing” in Ukeland.

          Everything that wasn’t nailed down …. was being sent OR FLOWN to Russia…. during the collapse… Finally, when they were taking THE ENTIRE HARVEST …. Ukes said “NO! WE STOP AT THAT!” …

          They were ALWAYS @ssholes! — So called “older brother” — that came about from Finno-Ugric-mongoloidol SWAMP AND SIBERIAN TRIBES 500 years AFTER Kyiv….

          That’s what the Ukes get for teaching the savages how to make FIRE in their bogs and swamps….

          • Murf

            Yea I can only scoff when I hear Russian’s profess ‘Brotherhood”
            Makes me wonder what dysfunctional family life they come from.

          • Andrew Chmilewsky

            Murf ROTE:
            Yea I can only scoff when I hear Russian’s profess ‘Brotherhood”
            Makes me wonder what dysfunctional family life they come from.”

            I figure I’ll answer this one. It was a deeper statement that you possibly realized, as well as more accurate. You recall the “list of Russian firsts” I posted? — You might wanna save such things, as it does indeed cover sexual perversion, violence, etc.. and a “dysfunctional family life” :)

            Anyway … back to your above… a bit more then the “list of Russian firsts”.

            The Mongols, were ruling Russia for ’bout 300 years. (Ukes kicked out the Mongols in a generation, a blood generation.) — Yep… Mongols were in Russia quite awhile.. The Mongols HATED the Russians and regarded them as the lowest scum. The poorest Mongol soldier, felt superior to Russian nobility. Why? Because at least he wasn’t a Russian. Russians aped Mongol dress, manners, customs and brutalities. And eventually adopted, and won the right, to collect taxes from their own people, in the Mongol fashion. They kissed a lot of Mongol @ss indeed. How did the Mongols collect taxes? — Well, if you didn’t pay (enough of anyway) taxes, they raped your wife, mother, daughter… whatever was there. Which led to the very, very traditional Ruskie saying of “yop tvoi mat!” (Fc’k your mother!), stemming from Mongol tax collection practices. This phrase is burned into Ruskie culture and language. Constantly used. Even by the men. So burned into their consciousness. Abuse, is as you know, very frequently multi-generational. So this I believe, is why Ruskie are so savage, brutal and animal-like in terms of their deportment.

            As one psychiatrist observed: “Repetition, is the act of an abused child.”

            Russians, it has been noted, do not change. A frozen culture pretty much.
            They pretty much like it that way, along with hatred for those that are: “the not we.”

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    In that case peaceful co-existence will be impossible. Nobody in Kyiv will accept the demented dwarf’s aggression being rewarded with the possession of the Crimea and Donbass- that would be the same as rewarding a criminal for his crimes.
    Furthermore, the dwarf has repeatedly proved that his word is just as worthless as Adolf’s. He wil continue his aggression against the Ukraine at the slightest opportunity. There is only one acceptable solution: the return of the Crimea and the occupied part of the Donbass to the Ukraine, and full indemnity for ALL damage Russia’s aggression caused, including full pensions for the Ukrainian widows and orphans.
    And anybody believing that the risk of further aggression is low should have his/her head examined. There is NOTHING in the dwarf’s character that suggests that he will back down. Apart from that, extreme nationalists such as Zhirinovsky, Dugin and Guzenkova won’t permit him to. Plus, if he isn’t in full control of the Donbass terrorists (highly unlikely given that they depend on him FULLY for weapons, ammo and mercenaries/Russian soldiers) then they may well start an offensive without his blessing, presenting him with a fait accompli and more or less forcing him to continue supporting them. Zakharchenko has already demanded full independence from Kyiv, or else- meaning a renewed offensive.

  • gmab

    One question comes to mind. What would “Hitler” do next?

    • The truth

      Why not a mussolini experiment ! In full fascist style !

  • Lev Havryliv

    Two outcomes of a full scale Ruusian attack on Ukraine would be.

    1. Putin would be politically finished. He would most likely face an international criminal tribunal like Milosevich did.

    2. The Russian Federation would not continue to exist in its current form.

    This is why Putin will continue his dirty subversive hybrid war against Ukraine.

  • Vol Ya

    Who knows what this fascist dictator Putin will do. The whole world knows from past experience that you can not appease a fascist dictator(.ie Hitler). Sanctions must be strengthened against Russia. Europe and Ukraine must stop buying gas from Russia as that is just giving their enemy hard currency. Ukraine must strengthen it army and its military hardware. Maybe that will deter Putin but who know because with Putin you are dealing with a madman. Even Merkel said he is living in a different reality.