Putin not threatened by a coup now but Russia is by its dependence on him, Kyiv analyst says

Putin - killer / Putinversteher

Putin - killer / Putinversteher 

2015/03/19 • Analysis & Opinion, Russia

Kyiv analyst Taras Berezovets says that there is no threat that Vladimir Putin will be overthrown by a coup, however much his underlings may fight among themselves in ways that may even help him keep power, but there is a very real threat to Russia and its elites because of their “sick” over-dependence on the Kremlin leader.

In a commentary on “Novoye vremya” today, Berezovets who is head of Berta Communications argues that “the main danger” in Russia today is its “total dependence on Putin,” a dependence far greater than the USSR was on any leader after the death of Stalin.

After 1953, the top leadership of the Soviet Union operated largely by collective decision making and thus blocked things from going too far in any direction, a very different situation than in Russia now where unlike the CPSU, the ruling party “most often simply fulfills the function of collecting corrupt rents.”

According to Berezovets, “Putin has created a situation in Russia similar to that which existed in Stalin’s time,” one in which the system is so dependent on the supreme leader that his possible ouster leads many to fear for their futures and whose actual departure is likely to be accompanied as Stalin’s was by suicides and purges.

Putin’s absence over the last two weeks underscored that. “The entire upper reaches of the powers in the Russian Federation were paralyzed: they did not know what to say and they were afraid of saying something which later could be used to accuse them of disloyalty.” And their silence provides the clue to what in fact happened.

“The entire upper reaches of the powers in the Russian Federation were paralyzed: they did not know what to say and they were afraid of saying something which later could be used to accuse them of disloyalty.” And their silence provides the clue to what in fact happened.


Putin was either ill or wanted to test his subordinates for loyalty or both. It is clear that he does have health problems, but it is also clear that there is a serious conflict between Ramzan Kadyrov and the country’s force structures in the wake of the murder of Russian opposition figure Boris Nemtsov.

That conflict has its roots, Berezovets says, in the conviction of the Russian force structures that they are the only ones who have the right to use force in that way and their conviction that Kadyrov ordered the murder, without their sanction but possibly with support from above, in violation of their understanding of the way the system is supposed to function.

The siloviki also object to the fact that Kadyrov gets US$ 3 billion out of the Russian state budget every year.Thus, a conflict between Kadyrov on the one hand and the siloviki leadership on the other broke out. Putin pulled back from the scene to see how things would play out, and in the end, he apparently took Kadyrov’s side.”

Although serious for its immediate contenders, the Kyiv analyst continues, it did not at least at the time “bear even the slightest threat to Putin’s power.” Instead, the conflict itself served Putin’s goals in two ways: it showed how dependent everyone in Russia is on his presence, and it was “the latest signal” to the West that it would face even more reckless and dangerous people in the Kremlin if he were to be ousted.

But all this is not unalloyed good news for the Russian president, Berezovets says.Viktor Yanukovych thought he could act as he pleased – until he discovered that the siloviki in Ukraine would not come to his defense. “the same thing could happen” in Russia: “the system will save itself and not Putin, if at some point he becomes a threat for the siloviki or Kadyrov.”

Edited by: A. N.

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  • puttypants

    Who are the more reckless people that the west would face??? Nothing of the kind was proved. The nemtsov killing was ordered by Putin and Kadyrov provided the scapegoats.

  • disqus_aJpixObjG7

    There are NO REBELS in UKRAINE because there is NO CIVIL WAR,

    NO REBELLION. There is a RUSSIAN

    INVASION of UKRAINE BY russian FASCIST FORCES. Anyone who brings the word nazi

    or fascist in a reportage re UKRAINE is in fact an ACTIVE PUTINIST.

    FREE UKRAINE and its FREE PEOPLE WILL HAVE

    VICTORY OVER FASCIST RUSSIA:

    At this point the farce has developed to typical repetitive macchiavellian

    historical proportions.

    It is a BLACK AND WHITE story of GOOD AGAINST EVIL of UKRAINE defending itself against

    russia. It is a story of Abominable cowardice, abominable betrayal, abominable

    appeasement on the part of the West.

    A neo fascist, illegitimate, unelected (“elected” by massive electoral fraud)

    dictator and his neo fascist regime

    (78% of the Russian Duma are neo nazi, neo fascist and /or extreme right

    nationalist)

    invades a neighboring sovereign nation.

    He invades to punish it, to reconquer it for the crime of rising up en masse in

    a people’s revolution, overthrowing a murderous russian puppet who actively

    worked to destroy Ukraine and on the side embezzled over 100 billion dollars of

    state funds.

    In response, the West –all its politicians and all its media- rushes, scurries

    to the Kremlin to kneel behind the mass muderer Putin and get a long brown

    tongue.

    Ukraine does not need to ASK NATO for help because great Britain and the USA

    together with France and China are LEGALLY BOUND by the Budapest Memorandum to

    do- IMMEDIATELY, WITHOUT ANY ASKING- all that is necessary to drive russian invaders and

    their murderous terrorist proxies out of Ukraine, which includes Crimea, and to

    secure Ukraine’s borders.

    This implies not just the LEGALLY BINDING RESPONSIBILITY to supply Ukraine with

    overwhelming modern weaponry but also to provide ALL the “boots” on the ground

    as well as air and naval power needed to quickly accomplish this.

    So any talk of perhaps, maybe, one day considering to eventually propose to

    think about and possibly discuss the abstract idea of deciding to supply arms

    to Ukraine” is simply ILLEGAL AND CRIMINAL-

    a negation of international law and Legally binding obligations.

    As putin, the illegitimate neo fascist dictator pursues his goal of creating

    another NORTH KOREA ON A MASSIVE SCALE, the entire post-decadent and now

    degenerate West, scurries to appease the criminal russian dictator, but offers

    NO HELP WHATSOEVER to Ukraine.

    The left and the neo nazis of Europe and America have revealed their true

    fundamentally identical twin nature. They have revealed their pervert

    incestuous love affair, and entered into a three-way love affair with putin.

    UKRAINIANS DO NOT SHELL UKRAINIANS.

    RUSSIAN FASCIST INVADERS OF UKRAINE

    SHELL UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS after every russian “humanitarian” convoy

    brings thousands of tons of rockets mortars and artillery shells the russian

    FASCIST BANDITS start up again shooting them at UKRAINIAN PEOPLE ans destroying them and their houses. Then they BRAINWASH the people telling the that Ukrainians, not russians shelled them. All Western journalists repeat this abominable lie.