Analyst: Putin acting like a terrorist in Ukraine because he can’t afford a full-scale war

Putin MH17

Putin MH17 

2015/01/28 • Analysis & Opinion

Despite fears that Vladimir Putin may soon shift from his partially covert and still in some circles deniable offensive in Ukraine to a full-scale military invasion of that country, there are five compelling reasons why that won’t happen, Mykola Vorobiev says. But the very fact that it won’t is pushing the Kremlin leader to behave like a terrorist.

In his FB commentary, the US-based commentator discusses the five reasons he says Putin will not invade and then points to the consequences tragic now for Ukraine and the West but ultimately even for fateful for Putin and the country which he rules.

First of all, Vorobiev says, as many have noted for some time, Russia simply does not have sufficient forces to “hold all the occupied territories” in Ukraine that its army might be able to seize to begin with. Ukraine and the world are changing, and “the tactics of World War II will not work.” Seizing territory doesn’t mean one can hold it.

Second, he continues, there is the impact of sanctions. However critical one may be of the West for its lack of decisiveness in response to Putin’s aggression, the sanctions it has imposed are having a serious impact on the Russian economy and would be expanded in the event of a major invasion and have even more negative consequences for the country.

Third, the United States has still more “radical means” at its disposal, even if Europeans are not inclined to go along at present. On the one hand, Washington could cut Russia off from the SWIFT banking system, something that would hurt many more Russian businesses. And on the other, it would freeze the accounts of Putin and his accomplices now in Western banks.

Fourth, Vorobiev points out, the collapse of the Russian economy is leading to “destabilization within Russia itself.” Russians are already angry about the decline in their standard of living. Protests are likely to emerge and spread, and Putin will need his army to suppress them and maintain his power — which is after all his primary goal.

And fifth, Putin lacks the cadres needed for such a war. Most of his generals are corrupt and have accounts abroad as well, and those around Putin “do not intend to die for their chief.” Indeed, Putin’s entourage recalls that of Yanukovych: they’ll support the leader until things get tough, and then they will begin to desert him.

For all these reasons, Vorobiev says, Putin can’t afford and won’t launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But that does not mean that he won’t continue to act as he has. And his actions are intended to intimidate and blackmail the West “and in the first instance, the United States.”

Because of Russia’s weakness rather than its strength, he suggests, “the Kremlin is acting in the classical manner of terrorists – by taking hostages.” In this case, they are not individuals but rather Ukraine and indeed “all Europe.” That is horrific for the hostages and frightening for everyone else. But it should scare the authors of this policy even more.

That is because there has never been a terrorist that the West ultimately has not been able to cope with – not Hitler, not Bin Laden, not Idi Amin, not Milosevic, and not “many others as well.” Vorobiev concludes by observing that in his view, “very soon in this list will occupy an honored place Putin as well.”

Edited by: A. N.

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  • W8post

    He, Putin, probably will never make it to ‘the Hague’, losing more face than he already has. He’s a Goebbels pupil and end it himself.

  • C_Low

    Sadly the US will be MIA at least until Jan2017 we still have two years of this jerk off and his “fundamental transformation”. He is taking the US down a notch while the EU is well the EU quasi socialist who have proven their ability to ignore reality until it is forced upon them i.e. WW1&2 at which point it has grown to such a problem that millions pay.

    My prayers are with you hold heart and never surrender.

    In the meantime if I was in charge of Ukraine I would go to the other threatened nations Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and try to get them to understand that if they wish to regain what has been stolen from them now is the best opportunity they are going to get. Very simply Russia is still weak, with limited existing resources and crunched in the shortterm by the Saudi oil moves for expansion. Spread Russia out force them to fight on multiple fronts and the “volunteers” will disappear homeward while Russian troops will be forced to deploy past denial and at the sametime the world will be forced to notice a growing world war not just a simple conflict. Also maybe Belarus, Kazakhstan, and the other stans could be made to understand they are on Putin’s list also, and maybe they should consider joining in weaking Russia even if just by political/economic actions rather than direct mil actions.

    • Mephisto

      while I agree about the weakness and incompetence of the EU politicians, the Republican morons invaded Iraq and Afghanistan – look at the consequences, worldwide economic crisis, terrorism thriving more than before, ISIL. And Putin is arguing that if USA discrespected international law he can also.

      • C_Low

        ISIL’s rise from the dead is the direct result of your boy O the great. Gave Iraq to Iran in his haste to run away ripping defeat from the jaws of victory setting off a cascade of events that led to ISIL. Hell he even supported the rise of the Muslim Bortherhood the birth mother of AQ and don’t forget Zawahiri (current leader of AQ) & Zarqawi (dead leader of AQ in Iraq or OG of ISI) was/is ranking members of the brotherhood.

        Peace prize O with his pansy liberal socialist beliefs have been a abject failure for the entire world.

        But then Liberalism is a self hating mental disorder so I doubt you can comprehend reality anyway. After all it just is not as warm and fuzzy as hOpe.