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Terrorist war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine: Summary for September 11, 2014

By Roman Burko

The Kremlin style continues – one step forward, two steps back in observance of the requirements on the Minsk agreement. The Russian side is strenuously trying to disrupt the peace agreements while continuing the build-up and regrouping of its forces.

The City of Donetsk

We need to pay special attention to Donetsk. Here MLRS artillery systems and fighters have actually not ceased attacks. They generally fire towards the airport and Krasnogorovka. Most likely the enemy is desperate to take the airport. There has been shelling from heavy artillery systems, estimated to have a caliber of 200 mm(!). We have not yet positively identify the artillery system, but one of the experts has made ​​a bold assumption that they are coastal defense artillery systems, which could be put on the chassis of a heavy vehicle.

In addition, the Russian-terrorist began to form defense lines on the south-western outskirts of Donetsk (Alexandrovka). Most likely, the Russian-terrorist will not attack in the direction of Marinka and Krasnogorovka because they have had problems in the southern direction.

The North Donetsk Zone

The enemy continues to build up its strength for an offensive in the direction of Debalseve. The number of Russian-terrorist forces in Alchevsk appears to have grown considerably. A number of armoured vehicles have been transferred from Slovyanoserbsk to Debaltseve, and more armoured vehicles have been noticed in Zuevka.

Russian-terrorists continue the shelling of areas next to Dzerzhynsk, especially the suburbs of Kirove and Artemove. In addition there is very intensive shelling towards Mayorsk. In Horlivka the accumulation of enemy forces has been noticed, most probably for a strike on Debaltseve. However it is always possible that this could be a diversion, designed to persuade the Ukrainian military to redeploy their forces to Debaltseve, while they actually plan to attack Dzerzhynsk and push towards Kostyantynivka.

Southern Donetsk Zone

The Russian-terrorist forces have probably begun to doubt the correctness of decisions regarding the creation of encirclement traps in Amvrosiivka, Yelenovka, and Ilovays’k. This is because there is now no set front line. There are reconnaissance groups of both Russian-terrorists and Ukrainian forces which move freely between towns in this area.

But with Mariupol things are more complicated. Terrorists, together with units of the Russian Armed Forces are preparing an attack from the east side of the city. Now it is very difficult to get information from Novoazovsk residents, where the enemy has introduced strict control over the movement of people. This testifies to the efforts of the Russian-terrorist forces to conceal the movement of vehicles and attack groups in the specified area.

The Luhansk Zone

In Luhansk we can only report on the strengthening of the front line by “LNR” forces. Also according to local residents in Luhansk passports of “LNR” are now in evidence, and the terrorists are forcing people to take `citizenship’ of the `republic’.

The movement of the terrorist forces to Slovyanoserbsk (Zymohirya), on the Donets River, has been noted. The Russian-terrorists have the potential to close the ring around the Shchastya if they initiate actions in this direction. This is especially true considering the arrival of new military equipment from the Russian Federation in Luhansk.

Events on the international arena

Today, the former leader of the terrorists Igor Girkin appeared in Moscow at the press briefing. He stated that the agreement reached in Minsk leads to the “shameful and the complete defeat of New Russia.” If we’ll bear in mind the previous reproaches of Girkin and criticism towards Russian leadership for being passive, Girkins words can be interpreted as an attempt to influence public opinion.

Also today Putin ordered snap combat readiness drills in Russia’s Eastern Military District, starting Thursday. This was announced by Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Barack Obama announced that new sanctions against Russia are to be implemented on September 12th. New restrictive measures will affect the financial, energy and defense sectors of the Russian economy. Also, On September 12th the latest EU sanctions will come into operation.

We would also like to remember that September 11 is “Patriots Day” in the United States, observed as a day of remembrance. It is established in the memory of the 2,977 people, who died in the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. In Russia, however, they celebrate an orthodox holiday – the beheading of John the Baptist. Since the beginning of the conflict and the undeclared war between Ukraine and Russia, it seems Orthodox holidays are becoming anchor points for bloody escalations by Russia.

Conclusion

Responses to the introduction of tougher sanctions, countless attempts to disrupt the peace plan, the marshaling of Russian forces, and the ongoing rumors about the sharp escalation of the conflict in Ukraine provoked by the Russian Federation, all impose on September 12 new concerns and expectations… Be ready for everything.

WE WILL WIN TOGETHER

[hr] Source: burkonews.info, Written by Roman Burko

Translated by Victoria Field and Aleko Burduli. Edited by Larry Field

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February 7: The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine

February 7 – 5 Ukrainian military were killed and 26 injured in the conflict area in Donbas in the last 24 hours, – informedVolodymyr Polevyi, deputy head of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during Munich Security Conference. NATO Secretary General has said that the alliance is strengthening collective security system as well as spoke about providing political and practical support to Ukraine on behalf of NATO.

February 7 – The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, – said on Saturday in MunichSupreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, Gen. Philip Breedlove, writes Spiegel Online. "We are not talking about sending troops to Ukraine," – said Breedlove. In addition, he called Vladimir Putin's proposals on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine "totally unacceptable".

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has held tripartite talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden – "The parties have coordinated further steps and stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire as well as continued dialogue on the implementation of all provisions of the Minsk agreements".

February 7 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has publicized intercepted conversations, which suggest that Russian military are provoking clashes between the ATO forces and militants of "People's Republic of Donetsk". They must be getting new "arguments" ready for Putin's negotiations.

February 7 – Armed Forces and the National Guards of Ukraine have received new military equipment – a modernized armored vehicle "Spartan", equipped with heavy machine gun and "Stugna" missiles.

February 7 – Ukraine is ready to support ceasefire at any time, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in his comments to journalists at Munich Security Conference. Whereas the issues of state's federal structure or the autonomy of certain regions (Putin's wishes), may only be decided at a national referendum, not in Moscow or Berlin. All is needed for peace in Donbas is closed borders with Russian Federation and withdrawal of Russian troops, not peacekeeping forces. In his speech at Munich Security Conference, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko presented the passports and military service cards of Russian soldiers who "must have gotten lost in Ukraine" and were detained by Ukrainian military.

Near Debaltseve after attack Russian terrorists appeared "cemetery" Russian tanks (video).

Poroshenko in Munich (20 min)

By Taras Kuzio

Arm Ukraine and force Putin back to the negotiating table

Russia, despite its repeated denials, is sending large quantities of military equipment to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine along with 9,000 of its troops. Movement of Russian forces, including the Pantsir-S1 missile system, are being tracked by think tanks and western intelligence agencies. Only Russian professional (not conscript) troops and intelligence officers can operate highly sophisticated Russian military equipment – not irregular separatist forces.

Respected Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has concluded that the aim of Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is to destroy Ukraine's independence by installing a satrap in Kiev similar to Chechen warlord Razman Kadyrov, thereby ending Kiev's goal of integration into Europe.

Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Kiev should deal with the separatists by buying them off with autonomy and money as he had in Chechnya, which to her was unacceptable.

Russia and its separatist proxies have never abided by the September Minsk peace accords and last month tore them up and demand a new agreement that would lend legitimacy to their territorial gains. Military assaults have claimed a growing number of civilian lives, including 40 in rocket attacks on the port city of Mariupol and a Luhansk hospital, with the total number of civilians killed rising to 5, 500, according to the UN. Growing numbers of combatants continue to die on both sides, as illustrated by these gruesome photos of a column of 16 Russian and separatist tanks that was destroyed yesterday.

In the face of the new Russian-backed offensive, pressure on US President Barack Obama to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine is becoming ever more intense. The release of a report for the Atlantic Council of the US by eight US ambassadors calling for military assistance was published along with a crescendo of commentaries in The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times (here, here andhere), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Washington Post, The New York Times, The American Interest, The Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic, The New York Post, The Boston Globe, The Los Angeles Times and Spiegel Online.

This chorus of support was backed by influential former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. A bipartisan group led by Republican and Democratic Senators Rob Portman and Dick Durbin called for military assistance to Ukraine "to defend its sovereign borders against escalating Russian aggression".

The New York Times reported that the US was considering supplying arms to Ukraine, something reportedly confirmed by Douglas Lute, the US Ambassador to Nato. Ashton Carter, President Obama's choice to become his fourth Defence Secretary, said three days later he was "very much inclined" to provide arms to Ukraine to fight Russian-backed separatists.

Ukraine has been seeking western weapons since the summer of last year but so far has received only non-lethal equipment such as winter clothing, bullet proof vests and night vision goggles. The US did send 20 light counter-mortar radars late last year and, with two-decades of cooperation in Nato's Partnership for Peace programme, is beginning to train four companies of Ukraine's National Guard.

Arguments against the supply of weapons, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "look increasingly naïve". Nevertheless, Canadian commentators have pointed to Ukrainian corruption (see here and here) and the presence of "UkrainianNazis" as a way perhaps to justify the Stephen Harper government's decision not to providie military support. High levels of corruption never stopped the supply of Canadian military equipment and special force trainers to Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. Although Putin and the Russian media have repeatedly raised accusations of"fascism" in Ukraine, it is the Russian (rather than the Ukrainian) regime that more closely resembles the political science definition of "fascism".

Nato will not send weapons to Ukraine but the UK, Poland and Canada would follow the US lead. President Obama is fighting against his own Democratic party if he sticks with the position of Chancellor Merkel, who continues to put naïve faith in a peaceful solution.

Economic sanctions (helped by falling oil prices) have not discouraged Putin's reckless and bloody intervention in eastern Ukraine. Some of those advocating military support to Ukraine believe – as in the 1980s through weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahedeen – that only a growing number of casualties will force realignment in Russian policy to that of public opinion, two thirds of which is against intervention in eastern Ukraine.

The Donbas conflict, engineered and sustained by Moscow, is already Europe's worst security challenge since World War II. There have been 40 close military encountersin the air between Russia and the west since the annexation of the Crimea in March last year. Putin believes he is fighting a "Nato legion" through alleged Ukrainian proxies and has always claimed the Euromaidan revolution was a western-backed coup. Russian soldiers dying at the hands of western weapons would return the world to the Cold War of the 1980s, although it remains unclear which US congressman would today step up as the new Charlie Wilson.

Putin will stop his destabilisation of Ukraine and return to negotiations only when western arms equalise both sides on the battlefield.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute forUkrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.

February 23: UN peacekeeping mission to Ukraine is possible – said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Le 23 février – "Au cours des dernières 24 heures, deux soldats ukrainiens ont été tués dans la zone d'opération anti-terroriste, dix autres sont blessés." a déclaré le colonel Valentyn Feditchev.

Le 23 février – "La Russie n'a pas su instaurer la trêve après les accords de Minsk-2, alors nous devons envisager des sanctions plus lourdes et la livraison d'armes à l'Ukraine." a déclaré l'eurodéputé Jacek Saryusz-Wolski "Bruxelles doit comprendre qu'il est temps d'imposer plus de sanctions et d'autres mesures contre la Russie. Il s'agit de livrer des armes de haute technologie à l'Ukraine – des missiles de précision, des missiles anti-char, de l'équipement anti-aérien, des armes que possèdent principalement les Français, les Britanniques et les Américains."

Le 23 février – "Si les accords de Minsk ne sont pas respectés, nous risquons de voir la déstabilisation d'autres régions en Ukraine." – déclaration du ministre des Affaires étrangères de la Roumanie, Bogdan Aurescu. Il fait surtout référence aux régions voisines de la Roumanie – la Bessarabie, la Bucovine et la Transcarpatie.

Le 23 février – "La Pologne est prête à participer aux missions de maintien de la paix dans l'est de l'Ukraine, mais cette mission doit être précédée par une trêve réelle et une décision concrète de l'ONU." a déclaré le ministre polonais des Affaires étrangères Grzegorz Schetyna.

Le 23 février – "Le gouvernement fédéral de l'Allemagne s'inquiète que le cessez-le-feu ne soit pas respecté." a déclaré le porte-parole du gouvernement allemand, Steffen Seibert.

Le 23 février – "Il est possible d'organiser une mission de maintien de la paix des Nations Unies en Ukraine, mais c'est une question de temps." a déclaré le ministre allemand des Affaires étrangères Frank-Walter Steinmeier dans une interview au magazine Bild.

Le 23 février – La hryvnia ukrainienne est tombée de 29.25 à 32 hryvnia vis-à-vis du dollar – chute record en une journée.

Le 23 février – Afin de stabiliser la monnaie nationale, la Banque nationale d'Ukraine a décidé d'interdire les paiements en devises de plus de $500.000 dollars sans une lettre de crédit de la banque étrangère.

Laurence Parisot: il faut sauver l'Ukraine

Poutine en guerre contre l'Europe

P.S.: Faîtes circuler cet appel, SVP!