Dmitry Tymchuk: A column of Russian military vehicles tried to make a breakthrough into Ukraine this morning

March 8 – 1 Ukrainian military was killed and 3 were injured in the last 24 hours in the ATO area, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

March 8 – Official Kyiv is ready to communicate with the representatives of Donbas – with those, who will be elected as a result of legitimate elections, but not with the warlords, – said Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Vadym Prystayko: "At this point in time, there is a need to unite Ukraine, which is torn to pieces by our neighbours and thus we are ready to meet the needs and take into account the opinions of local people in these regions. But we cannot and will not talk to the warlords".

March 8 – During the night of March 8th, the intensity of provocative attacks by the militants decreased, but they violated "silence regime" 6 times, – informs ATO's press-centre. The enemy is using aerial reconnaissance – over the last 24 hours air defence forces have recorded the activity of 6 remotely piloted aircraft.

March 8 – "Since the annexation, Putin's most important objective was to create a giant military base in Crimea, not a gambling zone, where in addition to the fleet, there is strategic aviation, air defence, space forces, coastal missiles and nuclear weapons", – writes a journalist and human rights activist Andriy Klimenko (Crimea). According to him approximately 100 thousand troops will start serving at the peninsula over the next two years and there "should not be any disloyal residents – e.g. Crimean Tatars, journalists, community activists – all those who do not want to receive Russian passports and want to keep Ukrainian one. This will continue, unfortunately".

March 8 – Armed Forces of Ukraine have completed the fourth stage of withdrawal of heavy weapons from the combat contact line in Donbas according to Minsk agreements, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko: "We have completed the fourth stage of withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line. Earlier we withdrew 100-mm anti-tank guns – "Rapira" and "Ruta", MLRS "Grad" and "Uragan".

March 8 – In Luhansk Region during the period of carrying on of fighting activities, during the shelling of residential areas, eight churches of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which do not belong to the Moscow Patriarchate, were harmed "Ruined churches with destroyed altars and icons – a visible affirmation of what kind of "Orthodox World" the Russians and their mercenaries in Donbas are fighting for," Head of the Luhansk Region State Administration. Henadiy Moskal.

March 8 – Russia poses a serious threat to the safety of Europe and the European Union should continue a decisive policy of counteraction in regards to Kremlin.

This is presented in the article of the Head of the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Margot Valstrem, published in the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet. "We saw how Russia, without any hesitation, sent advanced armed force units across the border in order to support the separatists, who with weapons attempted to fight with the Ukrainian forces and increase their control over the territory of Ukraine," notes the Minister.

DAVID FRANCIS: Washington's Mixed Messaging on Arming Ukraine Continues

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March 12 – No Ukrainian military were killed or wounded in the last 24 hours in the ATO area, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

March 12 – So called "Luhansk People's Republic" has decided to limit the broadcasting of 23 Ukrainian and one Russian TV channel ("Dozhd").

March 12 – Russian terrorists have resumed the shelling of the positions of Ukrainian border guards and intensified aerial reconnaissance in Donbas, – informed Press Secretary of State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Oleg Slobodyan.

March 12 – The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has appealed to the prosecution to immediately begin the confiscation of assets of Viktor Yanukovych, – said Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He added that six months ago the government has arrested 1.42 billion USD of funds belonging to Yanukovych's entourage (through State Service for Financial Monitoring).

March 12 – Department of Defence of Ukraine is reporting that the soldiers of 128th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received a first payment of 85.2 thousand UAH for the destroyed enemy's armoured vehicles.

March 12 – In 2015 Ukraine can obtain approximately 16.3 billion USD from all external sources, including 10 billion USD from International Monetary Fund according to IMF report-memorandum.

March 12 – OSCE observation mission, which monitors the border with Russia has reported about continued movement of the cossacks and people dressed in camouflage to Ukraine according to mission's report of March 11th. The year of this activity has already passed and they finally saw it now

March 12 – The EU External Political Service received an official letter from the Representative of Ukraine in the European Union, Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, regarding the pressing reaction of Brussels as to the admission of RF President Volodymyr Putin about the advanced planned anexation of Crimea. "Putin openly and cynically related the meeting which took place on February 23, 2014, during which he stated that they (the government of Russia) cannot abandon the territory and people under the torture of nationalists." Thereby, President Putin openly admitted, that the aggression against the sovereignity and the territorial integreity of Ukraine was planned beforehand and was realized as planned, which led to the first annexation in Europe since the Second World War," quoted the interlocuter of the European Truth the official letter received from the ambassador. Yelisieiev also explained that the continuation and result of these events became the invasion of Russian soldiers into Donbas. Kostiantyn Yelisieiev in his appeal to EU also emphasized that the actions of RF, oficially recognized by Putin, fall under the definition of aggression (according to the UN resolution of 1974) and represent in it "the most serious international crime."

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February 14 – Prosecutor General of Ukraine in cooperation with Security Service of Ukraine has detained a former Chief of the Party of Regions Oleksandr Yefremov, – said Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Shokin in his comment to Internet media "Ukrainska Pravda".

February 14 – At 0:00 the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cease fire along the contact line, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko during his address from the General Staff on February 14th.

February 14 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has said that peace agreements are in jeopardy as a result of the situation at Debaltseve lodgement. "The whole world is waiting tensely for tomorrow's morning with bated breath. Those who would like to derail the peace process at its outset, have been warned about the consequences. I am not going to say what Ukraine will do if the peace process is disrupted. I will say one thing – we will not turn another cheek if we are provoked and may the Lord forgive me for that", – said Poroshenko.

February 14 – Battalion Donbas soldiers captured 17 fighters in the area of the village Lohvyn in Donetsk region.

February 14 On February 14, terrorists are preparing a massive provocation, which may result in the entry of armed forces from RF. This was aired on Channel 5 by the spokesman of Sector M, Dmytro Chalyj. And they did accomplish this – they shelled with Hrads the Russian territory. Now Russia will blame the Ukrainian side for this.

February 14 In the internet there appeared a video which testifies to the gathering of armored artillery by the Russian side from Crimea to the administrative border with Ukraine.

February 14 – As a result of constant artillery shelling of Debaltsev by the fighters, "the city is burning", the building of the city police was hit directly by Hrad units. This was stated by the Head of the Regional Headquarters of MVS in Donetsk region, Viacheslav Abroskin.

February 13 – 11 Ukrainian military were killed and 40 injured in the ATO area in the last 24 hours, – NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 13 – According to new Minsk agreements, the city of Debaltseve should remain under Ukraine's control. However, Russian terrorists were given an order to gain control over the cities of Debaltseve and Mariupol by February 15th, – informed Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Petro Mekhed: "According to information available and taking into account the fact that there has been an agreement to cease fire on February 15th (0:00), Russian troops and pro-Russian militants were ordered to occupy Debaltseve and Mariupol".

February 13 – Soldiers of 79th brigade of Ukrainian army have detained a terrorist "Gnom" ("Dwarf") who is allegedly second in command at the detachment of Russian terrorists named "Somali". He personally participated in torturing Ukrainian military prisoners.

February 13 – A tank battle for the village of Shyrokine and an artillery battle for the village of Stakhanka have taken place – both are located close to Mariupol, – reports Ukrainian regiment "Azov".

February 13 – When the terrorists were shelling the town of Shchastya (Luhansk region), they killed and injured civilians at a local café.

February 13 – Right wing party "Pravyi Sektor" believes that that any agreements with separatists are unconstitutional and thus the party reserves its right to active military operations, – stated party leader Dmytro Yarosh.

February 13 – Russian terrorists have shelled the city of Artemivsk, which is located behind the combat line protected by Ukrainian forces.

February 13 – 4 people were killed and 16 injured as a result of shelling by Russian terrorists at the city of Hirnyk (Donetsk oblast).

February 13 – US Senate has passed a resolution on the release of Ukrainian pilot and member of Ukrainian Parliament Nadiya Savchenko.

February 13 – In the last hours before the beginning of the ceasefire, foreseen by the mutual agreements in Minsk, the danger of bloodshed only increases. This was stated by the German official Gernot Erler, an advisor to Merkel on Russia, reported the Bayerischer Rundfunk: "The risk is truly very high. In the last hours before the ceasefire, there exists the danger that the sides will attempt to increase losses among each other," he said. According to him, the heightening may lead to the reality that the readiness for a ceasefire will dwindle to nothing. "There is a diffference between Minsk-1 and Minsk-2. I see more concrete definitions in the new agreement. Also, backing up the new document are three preidents and a chancellor," noted the politician.

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By Taras Kuzio

What will the west do when Minsk-2 unravels?

European leaders desperate to avoid going down an Iranian-style route of economic and financial sanctions and to dissuade the US from sending weapons signed a second agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine on Thursday in the Belarus capital, Minsk. But it will be as unworkable as the first Minsk agreement signed in September 2014. The new agreement has weaknesses similar to those of its predecessor and will unravel in the next few months.

How will the weak Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) go about removing foreign troops and mercenaries? Will Russia really permit Ukraine to take control of its border next year, after local elections in March and the adoption of a new Ukrainian constitution that outlines some form regional devolution to the Donbas?

Indeed, could elections ever be considered free and far if they are held under the barrel of a gun? With crime rampant in the separatist-controlled Donbas, will it be safe to transfer funds for social payments and pensions from Kiev to the region and for taxes to be transferred back to the central government?

The reaction from leaders in the region was sceptical or cautious at best. Dalia Grybauskaitė, Lithuania's president, said Minsk-2 was a "weak" document; Bronisław Komorowski, Poland's president, said peace was still a faraway goal.

The main reason Minsk-2 will not hold is that the person who began the conflict – Russian President Vladimir Putin – has not achieved his strategic goal of destroying Ukraine as an independent state. Western sanctions have not served as a deterrent.

As Andrey Illarionov, a former economic adviser to Putin, reminded us this week:

the goal of Putin's war against Ukraine is an attempt at the inclusion of it, Belarus, and also Russian-speaking enclaves in other countries in some kind of geopolitical union called 'the Russian world,' with the liquidation or at least the limitation of their sovereignty.

The Donbas conflict will only end, he argues, if Putin gives up "the policy of denying the statehood, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine and other states with Russian or Russian speaking population".

Putin has always confused Russian speakers in Ukraine with Russians, and has talked of "17m Russians" living in Ukraine. That this is a misnomer can be seen from the weak support for separatism in the six Russian-speaking regions of eastern and southern Ukraine outside the Donbas.

US and EU leaders are unwilling to face the implications of a return to the Europe of the 1930s, with one country seeking to destroy another. They are desperate to put off the inevitable confrontation with Russia through negotiation. A year ago, when former US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made an analogy between Nazi Germany and Putin's Russia defending their co-ethnics in other countries, she was ridiculed. But today, her critics agree with her.

Putin's demand for Ukraine to become a federal state is a non-starter. It has no support among the Ukrainian public or its elites and is an attempt at 'Bosnianising' the country. No federal country in the world gives its provinces a veto over foreign and defence policy, as Putin is insisting the Donbas must be given in Ukraine.

Putin's objective to install a pro-Russian leader, parliament and government presupposes the annulling of presidential and parliamentary elections held in May and October of last year that were recognised as free and fair by the OSCE, the Council of Europe and the EU. No sovereign country in the world would accept such a demand from its neighbour.

Putin's paranoia about Nato and EU enlargement into what he views as Russia's 'zone of privileged interests' is a misnomer. Although an April 2008 Nato summit in Bucharest named Ukraine and Georgia as future members, France and Germany have said they would veto this. The EU has never offered membership to Ukraine.

And who will persuade the Ukrainian parliament to overturn a December vote by a constitutional majority of 302 to move away from the non-bloc status that Putin wants Ukraine to return to?

When Minsk-2 unravels, what will US and EU leaders do next?

Ukraine will not agree to a Minsk-3. If Russia and the separatists again fail to implement the agreement, the only options open will be to remove Russia from the Swift international payments system, blacklist its president, prime minister and its foreign and defence ministers, and supply Ukraine with defensive military equipment, training and satellite intelligence.

You can't make the same mistake twice. The second time you make it, it's no longer a mistake. It's a choice.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute for Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

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Le 23 février – "Au cours des dernières 24 heures, deux soldats ukrainiens ont été tués dans la zone d'opération anti-terroriste, dix autres sont blessés." a déclaré le colonel Valentyn Feditchev.

Le 23 février – "La Russie n'a pas su instaurer la trêve après les accords de Minsk-2, alors nous devons envisager des sanctions plus lourdes et la livraison d'armes à l'Ukraine." a déclaré l'eurodéputé Jacek Saryusz-Wolski "Bruxelles doit comprendre qu'il est temps d'imposer plus de sanctions et d'autres mesures contre la Russie. Il s'agit de livrer des armes de haute technologie à l'Ukraine – des missiles de précision, des missiles anti-char, de l'équipement anti-aérien, des armes que possèdent principalement les Français, les Britanniques et les Américains."

Le 23 février – "Si les accords de Minsk ne sont pas respectés, nous risquons de voir la déstabilisation d'autres régions en Ukraine." – déclaration du ministre des Affaires étrangères de la Roumanie, Bogdan Aurescu. Il fait surtout référence aux régions voisines de la Roumanie – la Bessarabie, la Bucovine et la Transcarpatie.

Le 23 février – "La Pologne est prête à participer aux missions de maintien de la paix dans l'est de l'Ukraine, mais cette mission doit être précédée par une trêve réelle et une décision concrète de l'ONU." a déclaré le ministre polonais des Affaires étrangères Grzegorz Schetyna.

Le 23 février – "Le gouvernement fédéral de l'Allemagne s'inquiète que le cessez-le-feu ne soit pas respecté." a déclaré le porte-parole du gouvernement allemand, Steffen Seibert.

Le 23 février – "Il est possible d'organiser une mission de maintien de la paix des Nations Unies en Ukraine, mais c'est une question de temps." a déclaré le ministre allemand des Affaires étrangères Frank-Walter Steinmeier dans une interview au magazine Bild.

Le 23 février – La hryvnia ukrainienne est tombée de 29.25 à 32 hryvnia vis-à-vis du dollar – chute record en une journée.

Le 23 février – Afin de stabiliser la monnaie nationale, la Banque nationale d'Ukraine a décidé d'interdire les paiements en devises de plus de $500.000 dollars sans une lettre de crédit de la banque étrangère.

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