by Andriy Rotovsky
I’ve just talked to a PR partner, an intelligent woman: “What kind of plans should we make? Ukraine is no more! Ukraine has died.”
I tell her… please, stop burying our country alive. But, she can’t. “All is lost.” she says.
After our conversation, I read the reflections of a Russian-American historian. The same thing – Ukraine “will soon perish in the fires of WW3, which Putin plans to ignite in September.
Once again, the same refrain: Ukraine will die, die, die ….
I read such pessimistic arguments and realize that these pseudo-experts do not understand (or rather, are not capable of understanding) the most important thing:
1. Logic, when analyzing the turbulent flow of history during a period of great change, does not work: conclusions formed on precedents from the past will not help to understand a new and nascent society. There is no systemic way of thinking to comprehend a turbulent reality as this was not required in the past.
2. Pessimistic assessments for the future of Ukraine betray a conscious rejection of the current situation, when the future destroys the “comfortable” reality” of experts fed by persons who are now leaving the historical stage of Ukraine and who do not feed these experts as before…
3. Our collective national feelings and emotions, our thoughts are also facts and arguments. They are more important than economic or political facts.
However, the future is still predictable!
That’s easy for me to do. I’m an Associate Professor at the University of Kyiv (at least I was until September) and I see representatives of our future in all the lecture halls. And, I like what I see!!!!
I have many friends who are volunteers helping the Ukrainian Army in any way they can; I see that self-organization is increasing in our society. This is our future happening now.
And, I like that too!
Unfortunately, this future has not yet matured for the government.
And the government has not yet matured for the future.
We need another 3-7 years before those men and women, who have gone through combat, as well as volunteers and students become active in Ukrainian politics. This will be inevitable, and the government knows it.
We are heading towards a period of turbulence (3-7 years). A period of unrest and uncertainty, but also a time of glory!
Russia will not take over Ukraine. Even if we assume that Putin wants to occupy the East (I really don’t believe that!), this will fundamentally not change anything in the way Ukrainian history is moving.
But, the pace will pick up….
Our army and security forces are obviously in the age of infancy. But, they are beginning to cut their first teeth. In a year or two, they will constitute a powerful Cossack army, which no sultan or shah or tsar could conquer in the past.
Putin, too, will not win.
Facebook is full of pessimism: partly because many people have really lost their minds due to strong feelings and emotional stress… and largely from the fact that sowing pessimism is the result of Putin’s powerful machine of “psychological warfare”.
One thing I do know: thoughts and ideas materialize. Our optimism and faith are more real than any logical predictions, because they can create the future itself.
Our young and middle generations are optimists. Their optimism is more important for the future than any disturbing facts of our present.
Ukraine has died….
Long live Ukraine!Andriy Rotovsky is an Associate Professor at the University of Kyiv
Translated by Christine Chraibi