As of today, everyone has written about Putin’s dead-end. The majority agree that his only smart way out is to betray Novorossiya, make peace with the West and tighten the bolts back home. In this case he will keep his seat until a very respectable age. If he continues to deepen the conflict or waste time, the West will shoot down the Russian economy, and he will be unable to hold on.
Though the agree with this evaluation in general, many, for example, S. Belkovsky and A.A. Piontkovsky, say that a retreat, a betrayal of “his own” and any political humiliation overall is incompatible with Putin’s nature and the person he sees in the mirror every morning. That those like him die but never give up.
If this is the case, Putin will not be with us for as long as we’d thought.
But what will happen next? Many people fear that chaos will begin, bloody arguments, Russia will fall apart, or the government will be taken over by a dark-age person like Rogozin, in comparison with which Putin would look like an angel.
But nothing like this will happen. Whoever comes to replace him, even a completely arbitrary person, even a dark-ageist, they will be positively different from Putin in these three matters:
- their relative legitimacy (as it will be their first term);
- the lack of political baggage that ties their hands;
- overall hopes that they will show the way out of the dead-end his predecessor had led them to.
It will be in the interests of the new ruler to diffuse the crisis. And they will definitely do it. As nothing is threatening Russia, its security, integrity, stability, economy and reputation today except for one person.
P.S. (added on motives of discussion): Meanwhile the so-called “Kremlin plan” will not disapppear. It will simply reorient itself towards friendship with the West, just like the Saudi Arabian royal estate. Nothing threatens it besides Putin’s machinations. And as to the patriotic masses of people, the Russian people have a high susceptibility to brainwashing. Let us remember: in 1913 bells rang throughout all of Russia and the people celebrated the Romanovs’ 300 year anniversary, and just five years later the same people ruined the churches together under the leadership of Comrade Trotsky. And they did not have TV back then!
Putin built a fantastically efficient machine to manipulate mass consciousness. If he leaves, the machine will fall into the hands of his heir, and if the latter orders for it to be said on the TV that it’s time to celebrate the NATO, everyone will celebrate the NATO together.
Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina