Boeing, Putin’s dilemma

terrorusian

 

2014/07/19 • Politics

By Oleksiy Honcharenko

The apparent downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and the death of 298 people have fundamentally changed the order of business.

After it has been proved that the missile, which brought down the plane, was launched by separatists, the international community will unite to destroy the terrorist organizations (now widely recognized as such) known as DNR and LNR (Donetsk People’s Republic / Luhansk People’s Republic-Ed.). These are organizations where the key role is played by Russian nationals – Borodai (the so-called prime minister of the DNR), Girkin-Strelkov and Bezler (Russian officers), etc.

There will be two ways out for Putin. He could choose to distance himself from the terrorists and actually stop supporting them so massively. Of course, Putin might still be able to provide some kind of assistance, but he will no longer be able to shoot down our airplanes, bomb our army from Russian territory and supply the terrorists with the latest Russian weapons.

However, Putin may have a second option. He will announce that Ukraine, as a “failed state”, allowed chaos to spread through many of its regions, thus posing a threat to the world and especially to Russia as its neighbor. Then, Russia will launch an open military invasion of our country “to protect civilians and stop the conflict on its border”. In fact, Putin could go for broke in order to avoid losing his rating and remain an alpha male symbol for his spaced-out people. This option is also possible and we must take it into account.

That’s why we must prepare! It is essential to organize military training sessions for our men and arm them as quickly as possible in the event of invasion, etc.

Well… and it’s certainly time to raise the issue of severance of diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation

    Oleksiy Honcharenko (Head of NGO Kachestvo Zhizni (Quality of Life), Deputy of the Odesa Regional Council ) for Ukrayinska Pravda

Translated by Christine Chraibi

Source: blogs.pravda.com.ua  

 

 

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  • Arctic_Slicer

    The EU seems to be at the breaking point over this issue with nations such as The Netherlands that were previously on the fence now unequivocally in favor of tougher action against Russia. All of this is going to greatly change Putin’s cost/benefit analysis of continuing to support the DNR and LNR. Putin has a choice to make he can continue supporting the DNR and LNR and risk more severe sanctions, risk losing the rights to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup, risk losing his French Mistrals all of which will erode investor confidence and international standing and severely worse the already weak Russian economy.

    His other option is to decide that the DNR and LNR have outlived their usefulness and that it’s time to cut ties with them and possibly use the tragedy to label them as terrorists to justify to the Russian public his abandonment of them. Doing so will allow him to maintain diplomacy with the West and try to minimize the consequences he will now most surely face; he can even try pinning the whole thing on Strelkov, who initially boasted about in his VK page before removing it, have him captured and offered up to the Dutch to stand trial at The Hague as a peace offering.

    While it’s hard to say at his point it’s starting to look like Putin is going to in the later direction. Self declared “Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic”, Denis Pushilin, has resigned; what that means at this point is hard to say. However it seems unlikely that Pushiln if he was confident the DNR would still receive Putin’s support. Him jumping ship is the first sign that the DNR is going to take the fall for what happened to MH17 and he wants to get out now to avoid taking the fall for it himself. I think Putin’s play here is to pin this all on Strelkov and then to have Borodai negotiate with Kyiv one last time to get what concessions that he can. After all Putin does have other ways he can continue to pressure Kyiv without the DNR and LNR including finacial blackmail, his occupation of Crimea and good old fashioned acts of terrorism and sabotage.

    The DNR and LNR are probably finished but don’t think Putin is done meddling in Ukraine.

  • Kruton

    He,s right.

  • sandy miller

    Arctic_slicer….you’re right. I don’t think Putin will stop with Ukraine. He can’t help himself. The only thing Ukraine can do is arm and train their military and get their economy straightened out.