Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to stop his aggression in Ukraine, and therefore today the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is more possible than ever, and may involve other countries, stated Russian economist, former advisor to the President of the RF Vladimir Putin Andrey Illarionov to the publication “Gordon.”
Putin’s goal remains unchanged – either Ukraine become Putin’s and subjects itself to Kremlin government, or it should stop existing as a contemporary, independent state.
It turned out that there are anti-Ukrainian moods in Ukraine. Possibly there are about a million such people, what is more their moods are more pro-Soviet than pro-Russian. However this is absolutely insufficient in order to create something convincing for the Russian, Ukrainian and world community. So they resorted to intervening in the south and east of Ukraine with the help of “Strelok,” “Bes,” “Babay” and other terrorists. But it was discovered that they are not enough as well – if a serious operation is carried out even using the efforts of the weakened Ukrainian army, they will be suffocated anyway.
About five or six days ago Putin made the decision regarding the new stage in the executed strategy of further destabilisation of Ukraine. These actions may be called “Operation ‘Smouldering Mire’.” Mercenaries and weapons from Russian territory will be sent to the territory of the so-called “PRD” and “PRL.” At the same time the spread of undermining activity in the regions of Ukraine where in April-May there had been no support for ant-Ukrainian activity among Ukrainian citizens will enforce. Therefore now the scenario, which has been tried out in Donbas, but with new force and at a new level will be spread in all eight oblasts of so-called Novorossiya. What we saw yesterday in Kharkiv and Odesa – as well as the explosion of the gas pipeline in Poltava oblast, the mass crossing of the border by mercenaries and equipment, and the accumulation of Russian armed forces at the border – all of them are parts of the new stage to undermine the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
May the armed clash spread outside Donbas?
In this situation the key issue lies in the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to solve the problem. Alas, there is no opportunity to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine by diplomatic means. In the last two-three days we have entered a situation, in which a large-scale war has become probable between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. I don’t know how much the new Ukrainian President is capable of making a forceful decision, but if he does not give the according order, the ulcer on the territory of Eastern Ukraine will surround itself with walls, borders, all characteristics of a new quasi-state.
The Kremlin, it seems, has made a decision not to create the “PRD” or “PRL” under any circumstances, which means the imposition a full fledged military conflict. Their plans include the recreation of the so-called Russian World. The only serious player in the world which is able to counter this is the Anglo-Saxon world, which includes the US, the UK, and the so-called “pre-front states”: Poland and the Baltic. From the point of view of the Kremlin, it is impossible to come to an agreement here, therefore the war should carry on until their complete defeat. In this war, to the aggressor’s mind, their ally could and has to be continental Europe headed by Germany. This concept finds understanding among a number of political and business circles in European continental countries, first and foremost Germany and France. Ukraine is viewed as a battlefield, which the aggressor does not intent to give away.
At the moment it depends on the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian society whether the Ukrainians will resist. Even if they give Donbas away, thinking that the war would end, the aggressor will still not stop. Donbas is not needed by anyone in itself, it will be used as a starting point to advance towards other Ukrainian regions.
According to the concept of the Russian World, the birth of the united Russian orthodox people happened in Kyiv, where Vladimir the First baptised the Rus (the Great Kyiv Prince Vladimir the Saint). And now Kyiv, together with the Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery have to live under the same state roof with the rest of the Russian World. Vladimir the Second will not step away from Ukraine. Or something will happen to that roof.
Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina