So it seems the next steps are becoming clearer. Yanukovych, propped up health-wise by his mentor Putin, will gloriously return to Eastern Ukraine with well-armed and – of course – unmarked “self-defence forces”, set up his own government in “liberated territories” and claim to be the sole legal representative of the Ukrainian people. Putin, totally surprised by this extraordinary move, will feel compelled to respond to the heartfelt cry for assistance from Russian brethren and fulfil his obligations according to international law. As Yanukovych is according to Russia still the only legitimate President of Ukraine Russia sees no alternative than to recognise his government and there you are – another rogue state on the border of Russia. And with a little bit of luck the “self-defence forces” (unmarked, of course) will manage to occupy the whole east and south of the country and link Russia with its other rogue state, Transdniestria.
My worry is what Kyiv will do. It seems to have sunk into apathy and lack of ability to take any concrete steps. If you see how Ukrainian troops were “pulled back” from Crimea, in total disarray and without even receiving proper orders from Kyiv, my fear is Yanukovych will indeed be successful.
For Russia is is the next step towards isolation, patriotic ecstasy and neo-fascism. It is also one step closer to its demise, but why do so many people have to suffer before it reaches that stage?!