Russia’s endgame

2014/03/07 • Analysis & Opinion

Bh0tFskCQAAfC6WSteven Davis, March 7

Russia is playing out it’s Endgame right before our eyes. When they are finished, Russia will be the masters of the entire continent, from Vladivostok to Dublin ,as well as the masters of the EU. From the Scandinavian North to the Southern reaches of the Mediterranean, Russia. Will. Rule. And they will accomplish this without firing a shot. Or, but only a few token shots which will satisfy citizens of the West that ‘at least we tried.’

Now, how is it that this could take place? It strains the credibility to imagine that any normal Russian would consider allowing their ‘Rossiya’ to bow down and become servants to Brussels!If you know anything about the Russian character, you will understand that what I’m saying here not only is true, but it makes perfect sense. Read on and you will see and understand that what is happening in Kyiv, Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg.  

It has been said,and understood for decades that in the realm of International Relations, America ‘plays poker’ while Russia ‘plays chess’. That’s easily confirmed by the fact that Russians have occupied and held on to their country more or less intact, for centuries. Russia is still playing chess,and they are about to ‘checkmate’ the USA ,Europe and the rest of the world.

To understand this we must focus in on just a few points. Fundamental points, occurrences and objectives which require answers. Let’s start with Russia’s new position vis the rest of the world,post USSR. The Russians are experiencing success with capitalism…or at least the oligarchs are. Wealth in Russia has been concentrated into a little over 100 billionaires’ hands. As we in the West can certainly attest, wealth buys power buys politicians. Period.  Now that that has been established, understand that, for the past few decades while the public in the West has not been looking, these oligarchs, and the oligarchs in other FUSSR republics have been waiting for their day to come. The average citizens have been kept down and in submission while elections are rigged and the oligarchs build billion dollar dachas with either taxpayers’ money or their own, private stolen wealth. Yet they dream of more. They recognize the fact that the West no longer pays attention when Moscow speaks. They resent ‘taking instructions’ from the West. They intend to change all of that, and soon. Thus:

*Both wealth and political power are concentrated into the hands of a few individuals in the Former USSR. They want more. They understand Western political and military institutions and how to influence them.

In order for the FUSSR to accomplish its’ goals of domination, there are a few geopolitical objectives that must be overcome. Naval power is of extreme importance when seeking to be a world power again. That’s because AIR POWER rules in all modern warfare. However, air power can only be delivered by aircraft carriers in order to run regular sorties and soften up an adversary for ground troop penetration, or launch guided missiles for pinpoint destruction…or even launch armed drones for tidying things up afterward and keeping the vanquished under the conqueror’s heel.

If one looks at the warm water ports available for use to Russia, there is but one that is developed for that use. That’s Sevastopol. Besides that, the Bosphorus and Dardenelles  are controlled by two NATO nations, Turkey to the East and Greece to the West. Further out to sea, at the Mediterranean exit to the Atlantic and the rest of the planet, there  are the Straits of Gibraltar with Spain, a NATO nation to the North and Morocco to the South, across the straits. Morocco has been given the status of non-NATO ally by the US government.

*For Russia to remain a great Naval power, and by application, a superpower, it must somehow overcome basic geography which is controlled by NATO and one ally of the West.

Google these words: Russia Ukraine Sevastopol Lease 25000  and see how many hits you get.  You will only get a few. I know, that’s why I started thinking about exactly what is going on in Ukraine. You see, NOWHERE IN THE WORLD except on the BBC website and a TV station in Kansas is any news outlet that ‘broadcasts’ online in the English language telling you that 25000 is the troop ceiling allowed to  Russia by  Ukraine from the old, controlling Sevastopol naval base lease in Crimea! Therefore,  as Putin has said publicly, he has not used his military  in Crimea. He is just warming up! He has just been pushing up his  troop levels to the allowed ceiling. The 150,000 strong troop push that every news media outlet in the West EXCEPT THE LA TIMES said were unannounced and were holding maneuvers on Ukraine’s border? They have been ordered back to barracks right on time…March 5th. Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s UN ambassador mentioned the 25000 number but once.

Despite the fact that the West has access to the best translators in the world and can easily obtain a Ukrainian copy of the Sevastopol lease from the Kyiv Rada website, and Vitaly Churkin has also mentioned the 25000 figure at the UN Security Council meeting this week (Russia now has only 16,000 troops in Crimea)  the press ignores this number and focuses on the mantras ‘must protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine’ and ‘occupation’ and ‘invasion’ and ‘war’. Trust me, the war has not yet begun. Does anyone truly think that Russia will stop with Crimea? The geography demands that it does not! When Crimea secedes by referendum, the only way in and out of Crimea will be the E105 and the M17. An international border with customs checkpoints will be erected. Because of the fact that Russia is being aggressive and is seizing the Crimea by referendum, regular Russian citizen’s attempts to enter Ukraine must be reduced, stanched or even stopped. It must be assumed that if Russia’s attempt to take Crimea stands, eventually ALL individuals residing in Crimea will be forced to either  leave and return to Ukraine OR ACCEPT A RUSSIAN PASSPORT. Per the terms of the Sevastopol lease agreement with Ukraine, Russian MILITARY has the right to cross Ukrainian territory to re-supply and defend their military interests in Crimea…NOT NORMAL CITIZENS. Thus, Kyiv has leverage in this respect. If Kyiv makes it clear to Crimean residents that it will enforce strict border controls against Russian citizens then it will definitely make ethnic Russian-Ukrainians think twice before voting in favor of secession. The Kerch ferry will be their only link to Russia! Their families in other parts of Ukraine will be cut off! In any case, the annexation of the entire Crimean peninsula by Russia should, in a legal sense, render the Sevastopol lease agreement null and void because the territory no longer will belong to Ukraine. Therefore, the rights reserved to Russian military ingress and egress across Ukrainian territory will also have been rendered null and void. THAT is why I believe that Russia’s annexation of areas of Ukraine which are crucial to its’ national security interests…has only just begun. They will have to have unfettered access to Crimea. WHY isn’t Russia telling us more about the terms of the lease? Is it because they are looking for a reason’ to move the real numbers of troops in and take a corridor from Crimea to Eastern Ukraine where the bulk of Ukraine’s military-related industries are? With such a corridor, ‘Russified’ former Ukrainian citizens would have their access to the Russian Federation as well.

Let’s look at the roots of the conflict. I am going to divide the time periods up into Pre-Maidan and Post-Maidan. I’m using the events that occurred on the Maidan explicitly because they were/are are now providing the necessary watershed of events that the Russian oligarchy desires. And they are occurring because THEY MADE THEM HAPPEN.

Fact: Pre-Maidan, Ukrainian citizens were ambivalent about joining NATO. Now, post-Maidan 79.1 percent of 32,000 polled desire immediate and full NATO membership.

Fact: Pre-Maidan citizens felt helpless to move against the oligarch power structure in Ukraine. Post-Maidan, the people feel empowered. It’s like they’re creating their own futures.

They’re not. They’re only behaving as they are expected and intended to do when nearly 100 of their loved ones are murdered by ‘their corrupt President’ on the main square of their beloved nation’s capitol. Human behavior can be anticipated.

Fact:Public opinion in Ukraine changed radically towards embracing NATO and EU membership, post-Maidan.

Now, on to the the reasons for Maidan, leading up to the mass demonstrations and mass murders in  Kyiv.

Former President Victor Yanukovych is irredeemably corrupt. For years he has betrayed the Ukrainian people and stole from the West. Yes, the WEST. After the Maidan revolution, Kyiv’s books were opened and it was reported that SEVENTY BILLION DOLLARS in credits had been stolen from the Ukrainian treasury over the last three years. Ukraine, or rather the government of Ukraine, was bankrupt.

Yanukovych had to raise some more money to steal. In addition, the EU association agreement that he had promised the Ukrainian people he would sign, would be requiring his signature in late November. The only problem with that…it would take billions of dollars over several years to make the required internal changes in Ukraine in order to accede to full EU membership. Those and many other billions, had already been stolen not only by Yanukovych,  but the other kleptocrats that ran Ukraine…and still do, for the most part.

Yanukovych had to raise some money somehow, but first he had to denounce the EU association agreement. So he did. And the people took to the streets.Peacefully. By the hundreds of thousands.

Now here’s where it gets technical. We must assume that many in the power-structure in the FUSSR are ‘true-believers’ in scientific Marxism. Also, we must make the logical assumption that the breakup of the FUSSR was, for them, a tragedy. One that affected the national pride of millions of Russians. In fact, Vladimir Putin has ruminated publicly that the breakup ‘was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.

After the breakup of the FUSSR, where did  assets which were formerly controlled and owned by the state fall? Why, right into the hands of the ‘new capitalist class’ of course!  They just changed their hats! Now, you may remember the basics of Marxism from High School. We glossed over the subject in the 11th grade. Remember Thesis, anti-thesis conflict and synthesis?  For those of you who don’t…google it. For those of you who do remember and understand where I’m going with this you already recognize that the protests at the Maidan were the ‘conflict’ stage and now we are all staring straight down the loaded machine gun barrel of the ‘FUSSR’s Marxist/oligarch ruling class’. And everyone knows the name of the former KGB Lieutenant Colonel leading the Russian Federation.

Synthesis: a new world order. The new order the Russians WANT. That’s why the most crucial facts are not being voiced loudly.Hmmm…by either side. 25000. Remember?  And the other details of the lease? No one is talking!  Does someone WANT this chaos to occur? What could be gained? A new world order, of course!

So the point of ‘conflict’ has been reached. The people are demonstrating peacefully in the streets. Clogging streets, shutting down businesses, government, traffic, striking and so much more. Ukraine’s treasury has been picked clean by the traitorous oligarchs.

In December, 2013, Yanukovych went to Moscow, hat in hand, begging for more money from the Russians. There are no limits to their greed. He and Putin cut a VERBAL deal involving a fifteen billion dollar injection of cash in the form of bonds, with the already high interest rate to be negotiated every 90 days.

A less-widely-known part of the deal involved the sale of a lease on the Kerch peninsula, a piece of land jutting out into the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, barely two miles from Russian territory and connected to Russia by a ferry. A perfect location for yet another naval port, which is exactly what the Russians want for their long-term plans to expand the size and reach of their blue water navy!

When Ukrainians back home got wind of the Russian debt purchase at exorbitantly high interest rates they were very irate, to say the least.

Yanukovych then went to China, looking for a few billion yuan to steal. The Chinese told him that they would give him a loan package, but only on the condition that Ukraine join the EU via the association agreement

Knowing that he would be under EU oversight concerning Ukraine’s finances, he refused. Yanukovych returned home empty-handed. Then, things got out of President Yanukovych’ control.

The only thing needed was a spark to light the fire. So… the Marxist oligarchs with all of the power provided one.

Who gave the orders to kill unarmed citizens who were peacefully protesting, as proven by numerous days of live footage, in the streets of Kyiv? And who were the people pulling the triggers of the sniper guns? It’s been reported that the sniper guns were of English make, imported to Ukraine at the cost of $10,000 each to be used for security during the 2004  European Soccer Cup competition. It’s also been reported that a ‘Berkut-style’ team of snipers were trained by the Ukrainian government to accomplish this task. After the murders occurred on the Maidan and after the new, legitimate government in Kyiv gained access to internal documents it was learned  from a document released by Moskal that a huge and violent ‘cleanup operation’ was being planned against the protesters. This operation would have murdered hundreds, maybe thousands more innocent citizens. It was to involve several snipers to be placed on the rooftops, thousands of Kyiv’s police force and a few thousand military, including the feared Berkut. If this did not provide the ‘revolutionary spark then nothing would.

It must now be logically assumed that former President Victor Yanukovych lied about not giving the order to use snipers with live ammunition against the Maidan protesters because the sniper guns had been purchased by the Ukrainian government. Only the government would have had access to those guns. No armories had been seized by the protesters at that time. To claim that Moscow had given the orders to use live ammunition on the crowd would be speculation. No hard knowledge of Putin’s involvement has come to light. However, the end result will be in Moscow’s favor if events continue to proceed in the direction they are now going.

Which direction are events going?  

Fact: Post-Maidan public opinion now calls for immediate, full membership for Ukraine in NATO, as well as the EU. Full membership in the EU for Ukraine would mean that Europe would have to assume the cost of massive credits to Ukraine in order to bring that country up to EU levels so that it can join the Eurozone. Europe,as a political entity, is already nearly bankrupt. In addition, Europe has a critical dependence upon Russia for its’ natural gas supplies. Billions of cubic meters annually arrive in Europe via pipelines, several of which cross Ukrainian territory. For Russia to lose Ukraine would be to lose control of those pipelines as well as their warm water port at Sevastopol  once the lease expires in 2042. But Russia is not even considering losing Ukraine. The Russians are master chess players, remember?

What’s going to happen next?

In a nutshell, the Russians will retain control of Crimea. Historians to a long succession of ‘frozen conflict’ zones, many of which were taken by the Soviets,a few of which were instigated by the Russian Federation: think Transdniester, Ossetia, Abkhazia…and so many more.The USA will back down on the ‘invasion/ encroachment upon the sovereign territory of Ukraine’ line of rhetoric. The USA might even concede and call for a return to the February 21st agreement. The Russians will continue to ‘defend’ their legitimate military interests in Crimea and pretend to defend ethnic Russian Ukrainians there. If shots are fired, there will be few of them. However, Russia will make sure that enough manufactured incidents occur in order to keep the pot boiling. They’re not done yet.

If more Ukrainians die, it will only increase the Ukrainian clamoring for EU and NATO membership. Recently, the NATO Secretary said that ‘the door to full membership in NATO was open as long as the normal membership criteria were met’. Ukraine has long been an associate member of NATO. With the Budapest  Memorandum presumably shredded by Russia , Ukraine will soon qualify for and ask for full NATO membership. That will happen. Ukraine will also request to join European institutions like the EU, the Hague Court and the European Parliament.

When these things occur, Ukraine will have become Russia’s oligarch-dominated Trojan Horse in the EU.

Remember, even with the conflict resolved, Russian troops will remain in Crimea at least until 2042, per the Sevastopol lease agreement. What’s that? Russian troops on NATO soil?! Think Kaliningrad, Act two.

Here’s an important thing to remember. Anyone who pays attention knows how tough it is for the West to get anything meaningful done at the UN…especially when Russia has a seat on the Security Council and wields a veto. But how about:

  • A bankrupt Europe dependent upon Russia for oil, gas and other resources?
  • An EU willing to neutralize its’ exterior, international politics in order to stay in the good graces of Moscow in order to continue being recipients of ‘Mother Russia’s milk?
  • A NATO that can accomplish little or nothing of substance, in a military sense, against the Bear next door because of Ukraine’s neutralizing veto as a full member, at the direction of the oligarchy?
  • An already nearly bankrupt Europe that is sending billions of Euros eastward every year, and regularly getting bilked of a reasonably large amount of that money by corrupt individuals in key positions using ‘creative bookkeeping?  ( If you think the new leaders in Kyiv are all clean as a whistle and sing in the church choir every Sunday, I have a bridge to sell you. Ask  any normal, law abiding Ukrainian about their ‘new’ leaders in Kyiv.
  • How about a Europe completely bereft of NATO because NATO has become obsolete…because of the ‘new’ Europe’s Neutrality?
  • How about an isolated USA, losing trade relationships daily to Russia and other countries who are forced to join the ‘Eurasian’ bloc?
  • How about a Europe that literally begs Moscow to join the EU because of the mutual benefits which would accrue to each other…like Russia’s huge cash and foreign exchange reserves, petrodollars and immense raw resources…and the oil and gas?
  • And finally…how about a Moscow which, after publicizing loudly to its’ people that Russia will play a masterful, leading role in the EU, one befitting the proud Russian people…JOINS!

There’s your Eurasian bloc that all of the ‘experts’ are trying to sell us.

Russia’s endgame, of course, is to neutralize NATO and the EU without a shot being fired. Free to expand their navy without NATO, all sea lines of communication around the world would be open to Moscow, without any challenges. China would be merged into the new ‘Eurasian bloc’. The Euro or Henry Kissinger’s beloved Yuan would  replace the US dollar overnight. Dollar investors would dive for cover,Wall Street would crash and stay crashed, commodities exchanges would immediately swith to the new currency …and that, dear readers, would be the end of Freedom, Democracy and our beloved Uncle Sam. The demise of The United States of America. Let the Communists in China and the tyrants at the helm in Moscow protect your liberties, Brussels. We will be helpless to do so.

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  • chornajuravka

    Reblogged this on Voices of Ukraine.

  • Bayda Vishnevetsky

    Great Article! Yet you forget one thing, and that is that the gas pipelines do run through Ukraina and Ukraine, in a conflict with Russia, can employ a scorched earth policy and destroy the pipelines running through our country. I don’t think Russia and its Oligarchs want that.

  • reasonablyliberal1

    Not even Reagan attacked the Russia. He just put more and more money into defense and Russia tried to keep up. They collapsed because they couldn’t keep up. That and their own Afghan war is what caused the demise of the USSR.

  • Deutscher EU-Austritt

    “When these things occur, Ukraine will have become Russia’s oligarch-dominated Trojan Horse in the EU.”
    Like Britain? Oh wait, are you saying we should veto Ukraine joining the EU?

    “and that, dear readers, would be the end of Freedom, Democracy and our beloved Uncle Sam.”
    US = Liberty!!!?????

    “Let the Communists in China and the tyrants at the helm in Moscow protect your liberties, Brussels.”
    There are more Communists in Brussels than in China.

  • Claus

    Russia will newer, “as in NEWER ! ” move into any NATO country.
    Russia don´t have any allies. (to speak of) Libya and blablastan ?
    The state of California has an economy twice that of Russia.
    When Russia´s gas and oil lines are cut off. Russia will looks like a burned down village in three month. (if as it already didn`t)
    Dear Putin. The people of Russia knows what a dictator looks like.
    And they don´t like it.

  • http://occupymelbournenet.wordpress.com occupymelbournenet

    Reblogged this on OCCUPYMELBOURNE.NET and commented:
    A very interesting analysis of the current Ukraine/Russian conflict.

  • Kevin Fernando

    Wow…what kinda drugs are you guys on….