Experts believe new government to be led by Kluyev, Medvedchuk, Arbuzov or Poroshenko

2014/02/14 • Analysis & Opinion

Dmytro Barkar, Radio Svoboda

Kyiv–According to analysts interviewed by Radio Svoboda, it is unlikely that a new Cabinet composed of a mix of politicians from the opposition and those favoring the president will be formed. They point out that this is exactly the type of compromise expected by representatives of the European Union, and would be the only type of government that could attract financial support from the West. However, experts believe that a Cabinet formed according to the wishes of the Kremlin is much more likely.

In an interview with Radio Svoboda, political scientist Serhiy Taran pointed out that Ukraine’s political and economic crisis could be solved by a government composed of individuals that would not upset the Maidan, but he believes the new government will not meet this criteria.

“Yanukovych’s group will have certain conditions for the new government. It must be able to find money for the budget. If that money is coming from Russia, then (the prime minister) will probably be someone who represents Russia’s interests. It could be Kluyev, Medvedchuk or Boyko. Perhaps it even could be someone who doesn’t represent Russia’s interests. So far, Yanukovych appears inclined to take money from Russia or possibly to put one of his people in place and then to bargain with Russia or the West on financing,” Taran speculates.

Poroshenko needs publicity, says Yakhno

Given that the 1996 Constitution is still in force, none of the leaders of the opposition would be interested in joining the government, much less heading it, as this would only damage their image, says analyst Olesya Yakhno. Furthermore, the government will drag out the process of constitutional reform, which will narrow the range of politicians interested in the post of prime minister, she notes.

“There are two possible options,” Yakhno says.”Either Arbuzov will remain the executive for the maximum of two months before being reassigned. Or, perhaps there is another politician who, even under the current circumstances, could still derive some benefit from the post of prime minister. This candidate could be Poroshenko, for example. Even with the existing Constitution and under these circumstances, he might be interested in such a position because he needs publicity,” she says.

Yanukovych wants a government based on the current majority, says Yakymenko

For political scientist Yuriy Yakymenko, there is no reason to expect a Cabinet of Ministers that would include representatives from the opposition and that would be capable of solving the most pressing economic and political problems of Ukraine.

“The president will probably want a government based on the current parliamentary majority and will propose that type of candidate for prime minister. But this approach to forming a government does not correspond with the spirit of the agreements. It will not help in reaching a compromise. This option does not address the problem, but rather aggravates the social-economic as well as the social-political situation,” Yakumenko says.

Meanwhile, Party of Regions member Volodymyr Oliynyk has announced that President Viktor Yanukovych intends to consult with his party regarding the post of prime minister sometime between February 17 – 21.

In addition, Speaker Volodymyr Rybak announced that Viktor Yanukovych has agreed on a coalition Cabinet, but that its composition must be politically neutral.

At the same time, Oleksandr Turchynov, the first deputy chairman of the Batkivshchyna Party, announced that it will be up to the Maidan to decide if his party’s leader, Arseniy Yatseniuk, becomes prime minister.

Translated by Anna Mostovych

Source: Radio Svoboda

Tags: , , ,